May 17, 2011 02:00 ET

Half the World With Mobile Broadband Using Gigabytes Per Month by 2020

AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS--(Marketwire - May 17, 2011) - Industry analyst firm WiseHarbor Research, focusing on commercial issues in wireless and mobile communications, announces its extended forecasting to 2025: integrating carrier services, network equipment and mobile devices forecasts.

WiseHarbor reaffirms forecast findings it published one year ago that LTE will be as successful as the leading cellular technologies that preceded it with LTE-TDD precipitating the demise of WiMAX which will peak by 2015. Speaking at the LTE World Summit, WiseHarbor founder Keith Mallinson said "Mobile broadband will do for Internet connections—averaging several gigabytes usage per month by 2020—what 2G has achieved over the last 15 years in providing voice and text communication to more than half the world's population with 5 billion connections including those with multiple subscriptions." Forecast findings also include:

  1. Cellular will maintain its stellar growth because it is the cheapest, most convenient and pervasive means of connecting people. Increasing demand for mobile broadband and new types of devices will make up for saturating demand and price erosion in mature phone markets with voice and SMS. Two-sided operator charging, of content providers as well as end users, will become the norm.

  2. Mobile device sales will grow from 1.6 billion units in 2010 to 3.9 billion in 2025 including phones, new personal devices such as tablets and a wide variety of machines, such as cars and utility meters, which are currently mostly unconnected. Handset revenues will flatten, approaching 2015, following current buoyancy in average selling prices with the smartphone surge. Total global mobile connections in service will rise to 21.5 billion (2.7 per head of population) by 2025.

  3. While data traffic grows more than 1,000-fold, operator revenue yield per megabyte will decline dramatically from $100 with SMS, $1 in voice and $0.10 with mobile data in 2010 to $0.001 with data predominating in 2025 (global averages including postpaid and prepaid plans).

  4. LTE is set to become the leading technology by around the end of the decade with WCDMA-based HSPA Evolved technologies remaining very strong in the marketplace. GSM and CDMA will also continue significantly beyond 2020. Mobile operator equipment expenditures will increase at an annual average of 3.3% net of inflation, with most growth in developing regions.

WiseHarbor's integrated fifteen year forecasts quantify global carrier services revenues, mobile broadband and total connections in service, network equipment revenues, phone and non-phone device sales. Geographic breakdowns for major developed markets and other regions are included. Forecasts also include average prices and total market revenues. Others' forecasts rarely extend more than five years. Device revenues or ASPs are seldom provided in their forecasts. WiseHarbor's new forecasts are ideal for strategic decisions on mobile technology transitions, spectrum auctions, patent purchases and company acquisitions.

About WiseHarbor

WiseHarboris a consulting company with WiseHarbor Research publishing multi-client forecasts and reports. Solving business problems in wireless and mobile communications since 2007, WiseHarborwas founded byKeith Mallinsonwho has 25 years as a leading industry expert, analyst and consultant in the industry. His experience includes leadership of the Yankee Group's global cellular industry research team from 2001 until 2006. He is a regularpublic speakerand columnistfor Wireless Week and FierceWireless.

Web Links

Obtaining this forecast: (http://www.wiseharbor.com/forecast.html)

WiseHarbor: (http://www.wiseharbor.com)

Mallinson biography: (http://www.wiseharbor.com/founder.html)

Mallinson publications: (http://www.wiseharbor.com/publications.html)

Mallinson speeches: (http://www.wiseharbor.com/speeches.html)

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