Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

January 21, 2006 05:58 ET

HARPER HEADED FOR 24 SUSSEX DRIVE

Conservatives Hold 12-Point Lead Over Liberals While NDP & Green Party Remain Static; In Quebec: Bloc at 46%, Conservatives 27% & Liberals at 14%;Seat Projection Model: Conservatives 143-147... Attention: News Editor, Government/Political Affairs Editor TORONTO/ONTARIO/FEDERAL POLITICS--(CCNMatthews - Jan. 21, 2006) - As the 39th general election enters its final days, it now seems almost certain that when the votes are counted on Election Day, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and his family will have a new home address at 24 Sussex Drive in Ottawa as he becomes the new Prime Minister of Canada.

A new national Ipsos Reid survey of 2000 Canadians, conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News from January 17-19th, frames the Conservatives holding 38% of federal votes (+1 point) and taking a 12-point lead over the Liberals (26%, -3 points) into the final election weekend. The NDP at 19% (+1 point) and the Green Party at 5% (unchanged) remain static in the polls.

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Conservatives at 27% (+6 points) are now attracting nearly double the percentage of federal votes than are the Liberals (14%, -10 points) - the Bloc holds steady with 46% support (+3 points).

And while there has been speculation from many of a tightening vote scenario in the crucial province of Ontario, this trend does not appear evident: The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) have maintained a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in this province. However, rising Liberal fortunes in the city of Toronto alone, which will not produce any new seats for the Party, has perhaps been at the root of this speculation.

Ipsos Reid's seat model projects that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would have a potential of 143-147 seats, the Liberals would have a potential of 59-63 seats, the NDP would have a potential of 39-43 seats, and the Bloc Quebecois would have a potential of 59-63 seats. In order to achieve a majority government, a party needs a minimum of 155 seats in the House of Commons.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from January 17th to January 19th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. (Table provided.)

Vote Race Has Conservatives (38%, +1 Point) Holding 12-Point Lead Over Liberals (26%, -3 Points)…

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow, 38% of voters would cast their ballot for the Conservative Party (+1 point), 26% for the Liberals (-3 points), 19% for the New Democratic Party (+1 point), and 5% for the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attract 46% of federal votes (+3 points) versus the Conservatives at 27% (+6 points) and the Liberals at 14% (-10 points).

Thirteen percent of voters are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or don't know. (See table in release.)

It should be noted that among those decided voters who say they are either "absolutely certain" (71%) or "very likely" (15%) to vote in the upcoming election, the Conservative lead is somewhat larger, with 39% offering support to the Conservatives versus 25% support for the Liberals - representing a 14-point spread between the two leading parties.

Regional Highlights:

* The Conservatives at 38% (-2 points) maintain a lead (now at 4 points) over the Liberals (34%, -3 points) in the crucial seat-rich province of Ontario.

* In Quebec, the Conservatives at 27% (+6 points) are now attracting nearly double the percentage of federal votes than are the Liberals (14%, -10 points) - the Bloc holds steady with 46% support (+3 points).

* In British Columbia the Conservatives appear to have now taken the lead with 35% support (+5 points) and have a reasonably-sized lead over the NDP (29%, +4 points) and the Liberals (27%, -1 point) in this province.

* Atlantic Canadian voters appear volatile as many NDP supporters have seemingly moved their support to the Liberals (37%, +11 points) who are now essentially tied with the Conservatives (39%, -3 points) in this region - NDP support is down to 22% (-8 points).

Regional Tables… (see release for tables)

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

Alexandra Evershed
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(613) 241-5802

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca. News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
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