SOURCE: Advanced Forecasting

May 02, 2005 08:00 ET

Increase in IC Units and IC Revenues Signals Improvement, But the 2005 Semiconductor Forecast Isn't That Optimistic

SARATOGA, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- May 2, 2005 -- The IC industry appears to be on the increase according to the latest IC units' shipments data released by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). March data show the first increase following a seven-month decline, as predicted by Advanced Forecasting (http://www.adv-forecast.com/pr_3-14-2005.htm). However, its predictions cast a shadow on the continuation of this improvement over the rest of 2005.

Unit sales for March 2005 were 3.6% above February's while overall Q1-05 unit shipments were 1.6% above that of Q1-04. This change in direction bodes well for the industry that has been in decline since July 2004. (Note: all calculations refer to a 3-month moving average).

Revenues for March 2005 were 2.3% above February's while overall Q1-05 IC revenues were 14.7% above that of Q1-04. This continues the zigzag growth-decline pattern of revenues during the previous four months, following a peak in November 2004.

Despite the aforementioned decline in IC units and the softness of revenues, the IC industry is relatively robust. Revenues and unit shipments during the 12 months ending in March 2005 are 23% and 10%, respectively, above the same period a year earlier. IC ASP remained stagnant at a very high level above the experience curve. To obtain the chart demonstrating the ASP analysis, please contact Rosa Luis at rosal@adv-forecast.com.

"Our quantitative-based forecast for the IC cycle indicated that the second quarter will be generally flat with a slight increase in growth expected for the third quarter," stated Rosa Luis, Director of Marketing for Advanced Forecasting. "This growth will not be long lasting." As this model provides a 19-month horizon of the turning points in the IC cycle, visibility for 2005 is quite clear.

Advanced Forecasting will publicly discuss the forecasting techniques employed in its monthly forecasts at the 17th annual forecast seminar during Semicon West. For information on this seminar please visit: http://www.adv-forecast.com/Forecast%20Seminar.htm

Founded in 1987, Advanced Forecasting is a leader in forecasting demand for semiconductors, semiconductor equipment, and materials industries. Its unique features are using purely quantitative input and never retroactively modifying its forecasts. Advanced Forecasting provides the industry's most accurate forecasts and has acquired a user base of more than 400 companies worldwide.

Contact Information

  • Contact:

    Rosa Luis
    Director of Marketing and Sales
    Advanced Forecasting
    rosal@adv-forecast.com
    Phone: 1.408.725.2964
    Toll Free: 1.888.658.3227