April 07, 2009 10:00 ET

Institute for the Future Launches Research Into the Next Decade in Health and Health Care

Map of the Decade to Look Beyond Immediate Reforms to Highlight Key Trends and Disruptions in the Coming Ten Years

Will all Americans have access to high quality health care a decade from now?

Will the U.S. population be healthier in 2020, or will we be struggling with an ever-rising tide of chronic disease while coping with new health threats?

What fundamental changes are likely in how health care is organized and delivered?

PALO ALTO, CA--(Marketwire - April 7, 2009) - With the political world largely focused on prospects for national health care reform in the coming year, the Institute for the Future (IFTF), an independent nonprofit research organization, has launched Health Care 2020, a new research project to map out deeper and longer-term trends that will determine the future of health and health care. The project will explore the changing landscape of innovation, business models, cultural trends, markets and economic interests that will shape the coming decade.

Health Care 2020 is intended to help businesses, nonprofits, government agencies and other key stakeholders anticipate the direction of health and health care over the next decade. The project will create a set of tools to help these organizations better understand the forces and trends that are shaping the future to better position themselves in the marketplace today.

"IFTF's research will provide an overview of the current landscape of health, healthcare and the forces shaping alternative futures," said Rod Falcon, Director of the Health Horizons program. "This approach gives decision-makers a unique opportunity to step back from today's uncertainties and take a broader, long-term view of the health care landscape in order to make more thoughtful decisions to shape its future."

IFTF will present the results of its research at two national conferences as well as at open meetings held around the country during the spring and summer of 2009. Researchers will also create a map of the decade to visually chart likely developments over the next decade.

Marina Gorbis, Executive Director of the Institute for the Future, adds, "By looking at signals of change from disparate fields such as medicine, biology, public health, economics and behavorial science, IFTF will apply its foresight-insight-action framework to identify the disruptions shaping the health and healthcare between now and 2020."

To help guide its research efforts, IFTF has named a distinguished board of advisors. Dr. Arnold Milstein, a Congressional Medicare advisor and member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences, will chair the board. The board includes clinicians, policy and business leaders from Harvard, the California HealthCare Foundation, the Center for Studying Health Change and AARP. They will provide critical feedback and insight into the trends and forces shaping health care.

According to Dr. Milstein, "IFTF has assembled a wonderfully diverse and insightful board to guide this study."

About IFTF/Health Horizons:

The Institute for the Future is an independent, nonprofit research group with over 40 years of forecasting experience. IFTF's Health Horizons Program ( identifies and interprets emerging trends, discontinuities, and innovations in health and health care. Program sponsors include health care providers and other companies, private foundations and government agencies.

The Advisory Board members are:

Arnold Milstein, MD (Chair), Medical Director, Pacific Business Group on
Health; Chief Physician and US Health Care National Thought Leader, Mercer,
Health & Benefits
Richard Bohmer, MD, Senior Lecturer of Business Administration, Harvard
Business School
Molly Coye, MD, Founder & CEO, Health Technology Center
Paul Ginsburg, Ph.D., President, Center for Studying Health System Change
Jennie Chin Hansen, RN, Former CEO, On Lok Senior Health Services;
President AARP
Hal Luft, Ph.D., Director, Palo Alto Medical Foundation Research Institute
Ellen Marram, President, The Barnegat Group, LLC
Joseph Newhouse, Ph.D., John D. MacArthur Professor of Health Policy &
Management, Harvard University
Kenneth Shine, MD, Executive Vice Chancellor for Health Affairs, University
of Texas
Mark Smith, MD, President, California HealthCare Foundation

Health Horizons Staff Include:

Marina Gorbis, Executive Director
Rod Falcon, Program Director, Health Horizons
Rachel Maguire, Research Director
Vivian Distler, Research Manager
Miriam Lueck, Research Manager
Bradley Kreit, Research Manager
Mike Liebhold, Senior Researcher
Jake Dunagan, Program Director, Technology Horizons
Neela Nuristani, Program Manager, Health Horizons
Jason Tester, Research & Design Manager
Richard Adler, Research Affiliate
Andrea Bloom, Research Affiliate
Dawn Alva, Client Services

Contact Information