July 2013 Housing Starts in Canada

OTTAWA, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Aug. 9, 2013) - Housing starts in Canada were trending at 187,416 units in July compared to 182,142 in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)⁽¹⁾ of housing starts.

"The trend in total housing starts continued to be relatively stable in July, remaining within a narrow range of roughly 182,000 to 188,000 units since March 2013," said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC. "For the past few months, total housing starts have followed the stabilizing trend observed in sales of existing homes earlier this year. As expected, the trends in the two market segments typically follow a similar pattern with the new home market lagging behind the existing home market by a few months."

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite volatile from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 192,853 units in July, relatively unchanged from 193,797 in June. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 2.1 per cent in July to 173,042 units, mostly reflecting a decline in the single starts segments in July. Specifically, single urban starts decreased by 5.5 per cent to 58,731 units in July while the multiple urban starts segment essentially held steady at 114,311 units.

July's seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in British Columbia. Urban starts decreased in all other regions, including Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, Ontario and Quebec.

Rural starts⁽²⁾ were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 19,811 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

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⁽¹⁾ All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

⁽²⁾ CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.

This release is also available at www.cmhc.ca.

Additional data is available upon request.

A table and graph are available at the following link: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/cmma0809.pdf

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