Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

May 07, 2005 06:00 ET

LIBERALS (32%) AND TORIES (31%) VIRTUALLY TIED NATION-WIDE

BUT GRITS TAKE STRONG 11-POINT LEAD IN SEAT RICH ONTARIO (44% VS. 33%) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - May 7, 2005) - LIBERALS (32%) AND TORIES (31%) VIRTUALLY TIED NATION-WIDE -- BUT GRITS TAKE STRONG 11-POINT LEAD IN SEAT RICH ONTARIO (44% VS. 33%)

Majority (58%) Believe Conservatives' Motive For Election Is Power Lust - Not Sincere Belief That They Can No Longer Support "Corrupt" Government (37%)

According to an Ipsos-Reid national survey of 1000 Canadians conducted from May 3rd to May 5th, 2005 and provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, the national Federal political horserace remains tightly contested between the Liberals (32%, up 2 points) and the Conservatives (31%, down 2 points) compared to a poll released exactly a week ago. However, it would appear that the Liberals have benefited the most in the past week as they have vaunted to take a commanding 11-point lead in the seat-rich and volatile province of Ontario (44% vs. 33%).

There also appears to be a dynamic among Canadians concerning why they think Mr. Harper and his party are committed to defeating the government and sending voters to the polls as soon as they can: Fifty-eight percent believe the Conservatives "just want to be in power" compared to four in ten (37%) who think the Conservatives want to pull the election trigger because "they sincerely believe that they can no longer support a Liberal government that is corrupt".

As for the other parties, if a Federal election were held today, 16% of voters would support the NDP (down 1 point), and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 50% support (up 2 points) and holds a 30-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (20%, down 1 point).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from May 3rd to May 5th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1002 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The National Vote…

According the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 32% of decided voters would support the Liberals (up 2 points), 31% would support the Conservatives (down 2 points), 16% would support the NDP (down 1 point), and 5% would support the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 50% support (up 2 points) and holds a 30-point lead over their next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (20%, down 1 point).

Among all Canadians, 14% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 12-14, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 22-24, 2005 April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 36% 35% 34% 33% 31% -2% +1%
The Liberals 37% 27% 30% 31% 30% 32% +2% -5%
The New Democratic Party 16% 15% 18% 18% 17% 16% -1% 0%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 10% 12% 11% 12% 12% 0% 0%
The Green Party 4% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0% +1%

Regional Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Liberals (44%, up 4 points) have widened their lead to 11-points over the Conservatives (33%, unchanged). The NDP (17%, down 2 points) battles for votes in the third position, while the Green Party (4%, down 1 point) registers lowly.
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (50%, up 2 points) have a 30-point lead over the Liberals (20%, down 1 point), as the NDP (12%, up 4 points) and the Conservatives (11%, down 5 points) contest for the third spot. Four percent of the votes are given to the Green Party (up 1 point).
·In British Columbia, the Liberals (30%, up 2 points) now have a slim lead over the Conservatives (27%, down 7 points) and the NDP (25%, up 2 points). The Green Party (15%, up 5 points) continues to trail.
·In Alberta, the Conservatives (63%, down 4 points) rule the Federal political landscape, as the Liberals (20%, up 2 points), the Green Party (6%, up 1 point) and the NDP (5%, down 1 point) trail distantly.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Conservatives (52%, up 8 points) dominate, and currently garner more support than the NDP (23%, up 3 points), the Liberals (21%, down 9 points), and the Green Party (1%, unchanged) combined.
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (45%, up 9 points) currently have the lead, followed by the Conservatives (32%, up 5 points), the NDP (17%, down 15 points), and the Green Party (3%, up 2 points).

Majority (58%) Believe Conservatives' Motive For Election Is Power Lust - Not Sincere Belief That They Can No Longer Support "Corrupt" Government (37%)…

When Canadians are asked to speculate as to why they think Stephen Harper and the Conservatives want to force an election now, the majority (58%) say it is because "they just want to be in power", while 37% believe it is because "they sincerely believe they can no longer support a Liberal government that is corrupt". Five percent say they "don't know" why they are calling an election.

·Residents of Ontario (63%) and Atlantic Canada (63%) are the most likely to believe Mr. Harper and the Conservatives "just want to be in power", followed by residents of British Columbia (61%).
·Residents of Alberta (56%) are the most inclined to think that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are calling the election because they can no longer support a "corrupt" government, followed by residents of Saskatchewan/Manitoba (44%) and Quebec (39%).

National Region Vote Support
BC ALB SK/MN ONT QUE ATL Cons Libs NDPs BQs Green*
They sincerely believe that they can no longer support a Liberal government that is corrupt 37% 34% 56% 44% 32% 39% 30% 72% 15% 21% 51% 39%
They just want to be in power 58% 61% 42% 49% 63% 55% 63% 27% 83% 76% 47% 57%
*Small base size

Please Refer To The Tables Below To Review Vote Support By Region:

Parties Ontario
April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 33% 33% 0
The Liberals 40% 44% +4
The NDP 19% 17% -2
The Green Party 5% 4% -1

Parties Quebec
April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 16% 11% -5
The Liberals 21% 20% -1
The NDP 8% 12% +4
The Bloc Quebecois 48% 50% +2
The Green Party 3% 4% +1

Parties British Columbia
April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 34% 27% -7
The Liberals 28% 30% +2
The NDP 23% 25% +2
The Green Party 10% 15% +5

Parties Alberta
April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 67% 63% -4
The Liberals 18% 20% +2
The NDP 6% 5% -1
The Green Party 5% 6% +1

Parties Saskatchewan/Manitoba
April 22-24, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 44% 52% +8
The Liberals 30% 21% -9
The NDP 20% 23% +3
The Green Party 1% 1% 0

Atlantic Canada
April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 27% 32% +5
The Liberals 36% 45% +9
The NDP 32% 17% -15
The Green Party 1% 3% +2

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca. News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/

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