SOURCE: Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital

September 24, 2009 11:21 ET

Market Underestimating Strength of Global Recovery, Says Barclays Capital

Latest "Global Outlook" Research Forecast Sees Further Upside in Risky Assets, While Cautioning on Signs of Policy Tightening

NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwire - September 24, 2009) - Barclays Capital, the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC, today said in its latest flagship quarterly research publication, "Global Outlook: Still in the Sweet Spot," that the market continues to underestimate the strength of the global economic recovery. As the recovery's early rapid-growth phase shifts from emerging Asia to the US and Europe, Barclays Capital expects further upside in risky assets, while cautioning that the market will grow more vulnerable to policy tightening.

"We first recommended that investors re-engage in risky assets in March of this year, well ahead of the consensus," said Larry Kantor, Head of Research at Barclays Capital. "We are reiterating that view now as we see a stronger global recovery than the market expects. We have raised our GDP forecast for the US and expect the unemployment rate in the US to be in a downtrend by the end of the year. If our expectations prove correct, then the market will begin to look for signs of policy tightening and the current favorable window for investors will close."

Major themes of Barclays Capital's fourth quarter "Global Outlook" include:

--  Recovery strength to shift from emerging Asia to the major developed
    economies, led by the US
--  Recommending investors favor equities over corporate credit, with a
    focus on sectors benefiting from business-led recovery, such as industrials
    and technology
--  Markets are more vulnerable to policy tightening than to growth
    disappointment -- investors should be alert to signs of policy unwind, and
    be prepared to reduce exposure quickly
--  Downward momentum in the dollar will continue in the near term as risk
    appetite improves

About The Barclays Capital "Global Outlook"

The "Global Outlook" research report, published quarterly, provides an assessment of all major economies and outlines the likely implications for global financial markets, including commodities, credit, economics, emerging markets, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange.

About Barclays Capital

Barclays Capital is the investment banking division of Barclays Bank PLC. With a distinctive business model, Barclays Capital provides large corporate, government and institutional clients with a full spectrum of solutions to their strategic advisory, financing and risk management needs. Barclays Capital has offices around the world, employs 20,000 people and has the global reach, advisory services and distribution power to meet the needs of issuers and investors worldwide.

For further information about Barclays Capital, please visit our website

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