Michigan Retail Sales Steady in May


LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - Jun 22, 2011) - Michigan's improved retail sales held steady in May despite a slight increase in the state's unemployment rate, according to the latest Michigan Retail Index survey conducted by Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

"May was a virtual replay of April and sustained that month's sales gains," said James P. Hallan, MRA president and chief executive officer. "Sales remained steady and didn't fall back to March's level."

"Retailers remain cautious about the economy and the lack of new jobs," he continued, "but falling gasoline prices should help bolster consumer spending and retailers' optimism."

The state's unemployment rate rose 0.1 percent in May to 10.3 percent.

The Michigan Retail Index for May found that 53 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 37 percent recorded declines and 10 percent saw no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 53.5, up slightly from 53.1 in April (42.9 in March).

Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in overall retail activity.

Looking forward, 42 percent of retailers expect sales during June-August to increase over the same period last year, while 16 percent project a decrease and 42 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 60.5, down slightly from 60.9 in April (63.8 in March).

Sales increased across many trade lines, with apparel the largest exception. Only 30 percent of apparel retailers reported higher sales from a year ago, while 60 percent said sales declined.

Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index

May 2011 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at http://www.retailers.com/mra/news/michigan-retail-index.html

May Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate April results)

% Increased% Decreased% No ChangeIndex*Responses
Sales53 (45)37 (32)10 (23)53.5 (53.1)72 (108)
Inventory27 (34)26 (20)47 (46)47.5 (53.7)70 (106)
Prices32 (38)10 (6)58 (56)59.5 (66.8)71 (107)
Promotions34 (29)4 (3)62 (68)65.3 (62.0)71 (107)
Hiring13 (9)5 (9)82 (82)50.3 (48.3)71 (107)

Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate April results)

% Increased% Decreased% No ChangeIndex*Responses
Sales42 (48)16 (16)42 (36)60.5 (60.9)72 (108)
Inventory19 (35)23 (18)58 (47)43.3 (54.5)70 (106)
Prices31 (41)9 (5)60 (54)60.7 (69.5)70 (107)
Promotions38 (36)3 (1)59 (63)69.0 (67.2)71 (106)
Hiring15 (8)3 (7)82 (85)54.4 (49.1)71 (106)

May Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)

% Increased% Decreased% No Change
North36 (43)43 (28)21 (29)
West53 (37)26 (0)21 (63)
Central70 (50)30 (0)0 (50)
East33 (0)67 (33)0 (67)
Southeast65 (50)35 (25)0 (25)

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

Contact Information:

Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656