SOURCE: Michigan Retailers Association

Michigan Retailers Association

July 30, 2014 13:16 ET

Michigan Retailers Association: Michigan Retail Sales Climb in June

LANSING, MI--(Marketwired - Jul 30, 2014) -  Michigan's retail industry rang up its best sales performance in more than three years during June, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

The June index showed retailers' year-over-year sales jumped 19 points to 66.7 on the 100-point scale, the highest since 68.1 in November 2010 as Michigan was rebounding from the Great Recession.

"We get a better picture of what's going on by looking at this past spring as a whole, and that picture is strongly positive," said James P. Hallan, MRA president and CEO.

"Coming out of the extremely tough winter, we finally saw an increase in sales in April, an unexpected drop in May and then a larger than anticipated increase in June. It makes more sense to view the entire 2nd Quarter as a rebound from the harsh winter."

Retailers' sales forecasts for the 3rd Quarter slipped nearly 10 points on the index, indicating possible concerns about the back-to-school and early fall periods.

The June survey of MRA members showed 53 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 23 percent recorded declines and 24 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 66.7, up from 47.7 in May. A year ago June the Index stood at 47.7.

The 100-point Index gauges the performance of the state's overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.

Looking forward, 58 percent of retailers expect sales during July-September to increase over the same period last year, while 18 percent project a decrease and 24 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 69.5, down from 79.3 in May. A year ago June the Index stood at 79.3.

Note: William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index
June 2014 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at http://www.retailers.com/mra/news/michigan-retail-index.html

June Performance 
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

           
           
  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 53 (34) 23 (40) 24 (26) 66.7 (47.7) 55 (78)
Inventory 35 (23) 16 (16) 49 (61) 62.6 (54.0) 55 (74)
Prices 35 (16) 5 (6) 60 (78) 64.5 (55.0) 55 (74)
Promotions 36 (32) 6 (1) 58 (67) 63.7 (63.9) 55 (73)
Hiring 15 (10) 7 (5) 78 (85) 53.2 (51.4) 54 (74)
           
           

Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

           
  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 58 (63) 18 (8) 24 (29) 69.5 (79.3) 55 (78)
Inventory 35 (34) 22 (9) 43 (57) 54.9 (61.0) 54 (76)
Prices 24 (12) 3 (5) 73 (83) 61.2 (53.2) 55 (76)
Promotions 36 (36) 6 (0) 58 (64) 65.4 (67.0) 55 (75)
Hiring 20 (17) 9 (4) 71 (79) 55.4 (57.4) 55 (76)
           

June Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months) 

         
  % Increased % Decreased % No Change  
North 48 (57) 28 (24) 24 (19)  
West 56 (78) 11 (0) 33 (22)  
Central 40 (40) 40 (20) 20 (40)  
East 50 (75) 25 (25) 25 (0)  
Southeast 62 (54) 23 (23) 15 (23)  
         

Question of the Month
Compared to last year, has your average consumer transaction amount ...

     
Increased Decreased No Change
42% 33% 25%
     

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

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