SOURCE: Michigan Retailers Association

Michigan Retailers Association

July 15, 2015 16:50 ET

Michigan Retailers' Sales and Forecasts Rise

LANSING, MI--(Marketwired - July 15, 2015) - Michigan retailers' sales rebounded in June and expectations remained strong for the rest of summer, according to the latest Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Most retailers saw sales increase after a dip in May. The current-sales component of the Index jumped up 16.5 points to 63.9, the second highest mark of the year.

"June's sales growth is welcome news and points to continued improvement in the economy," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan.

"While consumer spending has fluctuated from month to month this year, the overall trend is upward."

The June survey of MRA members showed 53 percent of retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 28 percent recorded declines and 19 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 63.9, up from 47.4 in May. A year ago June the performance index stood at 66.7.

The 100-point index gauges the performance of the state's overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.

Looking forward, 61 percent of retailers expect sales during July-September to increase over the same period last year, while 8 percent project a decrease and 31 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 74.4, up from 73 in May. A year ago June the outlook index stood at 69.5.

Note: William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index
June 2015 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at http://www.retailers.com/mra/news/michigan-retail-index.html

June Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

           
  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 53 (40) 28 (36) 19 (24) 63.9 (47.4) 64 (80)
Inventory 42 (44) 17 (16) 41 (40) 61.1 (58.5) 64 (80)
Prices 10 (11) 6 ( 8) 84 (81) 51.8 (52.2) 62 (80)
Promotions 21 (31) 2 ( 0) 77 (69) 57.9 (65.8) 62 (80)
Hiring 16 (24) 8 ( 4) 76 (72) 53.0 (59.3) 64 (79)
           

Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate May results)

           
  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 61 (64) 8 (10) 31 (26) 74.4 (73.0) 62 (77)
Inventory 33 (39) 20 (24) 47 (37) 53.7 (54.3) 64 (79)
Prices 19 (17) 3 ( 5) 78 (78) 58.2 (56.3) 64 (77)
Promotions 34 (39) 3 ( 1) 63 (60) 66.2 (67.9) 62 (77)
Hiring 14 (21) 8 ( 6) 78 (73) 52.3 (56.1) 64 (78)
           

June Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)

    
 % Increased% Decreased% No Change
North62 (69)25 (12)13 (19)
West53 (71)7 ( 7)40 (22)
Central62 (72)25 (14)13 (14)
East100 (33)0 ( 0)0 (67)
Southeast35 (50)50 ( 5)15 (45)
    

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

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