Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

September 15, 2009 06:01 ET

NDP Falters to Mere 12% Support With All Eyes on Layton As He Determ

Harper’s Tories (39%) Hold Hammer over Ignatieff’s Grits (30%)

Attention: News Editor, Government/Political Affairs Editor TORONTO, ON--(Marketwire - Sept. 15, 2009) - Toronto, ON - As politicians return to Ottawa in preparation for a series of showdowns over the next few weeks that could see the government defeated on a matter of confidence as early as Friday, all eyes are on Jack Layton as he considers whether to work with the government or to defeat it and plunge Canada into another federal election. A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television has found that Stephen Harper and his Conservatives (39%, unchanged) hold the hammer over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals (30%, up 2 points).

If an election were to be held tomorrow, Jack Layton and the NDP would receive 12% support among decided voters (down 2 points), while the Green Party's support would account for 8% of the vote (down 2 points). Nationally, the Bloc would receive 9% of the vote (36% in Quebec, up 1 point). Seven percent (7%) of Canadians remain undecided.

With Michael Ignatieff's recent announcement that his party will no longer support the government, the stage is set for Canada's fourth federal election in six years. But perhaps sensing Canadians' cool reception to another election, his party's sagging fortunes in the polls and the threat of voter backlash if he were to send Canadians to the polls yet again, NDP Leader Jack Layton has been sounding a more conciliatory tone as of late, suggesting that he might be back-pedaling into a retreat from a government-defeating showdown.

Seven in Ten (71%) of Canadians believe that the 'political process is operating just fine at the moment and there is no need for an election', the proportion of which has increased 3 points since June.

Conversely, one quarter (25%) of Canadians believe that 'Parliament and our federal political process is hopelessly deadlocked right now and that we really need an election to clear the air', down 2 points.

In a direct blame-game showdown between the apparently-bullish Liberals and the "reluctant-to-alter" Conservatives, more Canadians would vote against the Liberals (28%) than the Conservatives (20%) as a result of assigning blame for causing an election, the results of which were derived from the following data:

If an election were to be triggered this fall, a majority (54%) says that Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals would be most to blame for it happening, and 51% of these individuals say that this would cause them to vote against Ignatieff and the Liberals, totalling 28% of Canadians overall.

One in three (35%) believe that Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would be most to blame for it happening, and 57% of these individuals would vote against the local Tory candidate as a result, totalling 20% of Canadians overall.

The Vote in Ontario and Quebec…

The key to electoral success is in seat-rich Ontario. If an election were held tomorrow, the Conservatives would garner 46% of decided voters within Ontario, while the Liberals would receive 36% support. The NDP (10%) and Green Party (7%) trail.

Quebec is also a key battleground: the Bloc leads with 36% support, followed by the Liberals (28%), Conservatives (14%), NDP (12%) and Green Party (9%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from September 10 to 13, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,001 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001


John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2002

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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