Forum Research Inc.

Forum Research Inc.

May 01, 2011 23:49 ET

NDP Surge Stalls, Tories Near Majority

Tories gain 1% in a day, NDP unchanged

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 1, 2011) -

HIGHLIGHTS:

  • Among eligible Canadian voters who plan to vote, the Conservatives are in a statistical dead-heat with the NDP (36%, compared to 33%). The Liberal party trails with just under one fifth of the popular vote (19%), followed by the Green party (6%), and Bloc Quebecois (5%).
  • On a regional basis, support for the Conservative party was highest in Alberta (58%), Manitoba / Saskatchewan (51%), and Ontario (40%) while support for the NDP party was highest in Quebec (43%), followed by British Columbia (39%).
  • These voting intention results, if held on Election Day, would likely yield approximately 150 Tory seats, 122 NDP seats, 35 Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc Quebecois seat.
  • 'It looks like the NDP surge has finally stalled and that the Tories have regained a bit of lost ground' – Dr. Lorne Bozinoff

In the final poll conducted by Forum Research among eligible Canadian voters for the May 2nd election, the Conservatives have a slight lead over the NDP (Tories 36%, up from 35% yesterday, and up from 34% on April 27th, 2011; compared to NDP 33% (unchanged from yesterday, but up from 31% on April 27th, 2011). The Liberal party trails with just under one fifth of the popular vote (19%, unchanged from yesterday but down from 22% on April 27th, 2011), followed by the Green party (6% down from 7%), and Bloc Quebecois (5%, unchanged). The 1% gain by the Tories suggests that Stephen Harper's warnings about an NDP government may be working. Alternatively, massage parlour allegations concerning Jack Layton may have take a slight toll.

Conservative & NDP Strongholds

On a regional basis, support for the Conservative party is highest in Alberta (58%), Manitoba / Saskatchewan (51%), and Ontario (40%). Support for the NDP party is highest in Quebec (43%), followed by British Columbia (39%).

Tory Majority Within Reach

These voting intention results, if held on Election Day, would likely yield approximately 150 Tory seats, 122 NDP seats, 35 Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc Quebecois seat, within a range of approximately plus or minus 10 seats for each party. These results may change as voting intentions change and are subject to the usual margins of error.

'It looks like the NDP surge has finally stalled and that the Tories have regained a bit of lost ground. It's not clear if is enough to give the Tories a majority' – Dr. Lorne Bozinoff

Methodology

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 3,480 randomly selected eligible voters across Canada. The poll was conducted on May 1st, 2011.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for both subsample (such as age, gender) results and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country's leading survey research firms.

Copyright Forum Research Inc., 2011. All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.

The key questions covered in the recent poll concerned:

Party Support

'If the federal election were held on Monday, which party would you be most likely to vote for?' + 'Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?' + 'Are you absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely or not very likely to vote in the federal election on Monday?'

Comparison to Previous Polls

(Decided/Leaning)

%Mar 26th-27th 2011Apr 5th-6th 2011Apr 14th
2011
Apr 20th
2011
Apr 26th
2011
Apr 30th
2011*
May 1st
2011*
Sample2095200021182620304537893480
Conservative41383636343536
Liberal24262523221919
New Democrat19202225313333
Green7986776
Bloc Quebecois10876655
* Decided/Leaning Who Plan to Vote

(Decided/Leaning Who Plan to Vote)

Region
%TotalATLQCMTLRest of
QC
ONGTARest of
ON
MB/SKABBC
Sample34802158093804291341483858247384472
Conservative3633171223403941515837
Liberal192411158262924141415
NDP3338434443282829302039
Green66666536578
Bloc Quebecois50222420000000

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