NDP Surge Stalls, Tories Near Majority

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - May 1, 2011) -

HIGHLIGHTS:

• Among eligible Canadian voters who plan to vote, the Conservatives are in a statistical dead-heat with the NDP (36%, compared to 33%). The Liberal party trails with just under one fifth of the popular vote (19%), followed by the Green party (6%), and Bloc Quebecois (5%).
• On a regional basis, support for the Conservative party was highest in Alberta (58%), Manitoba / Saskatchewan (51%), and Ontario (40%) while support for the NDP party was highest in Quebec (43%), followed by British Columbia (39%).
• These voting intention results, if held on Election Day, would likely yield approximately 150 Tory seats, 122 NDP seats, 35 Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc Quebecois seat.
• 'It looks like the NDP surge has finally stalled and that the Tories have regained a bit of lost ground' – Dr. Lorne Bozinoff

In the final poll conducted by Forum Research among eligible Canadian voters for the May 2^nd election, the Conservatives have a slight lead over the NDP (Tories 36%, up from 35% yesterday, and up from 34% on April 27^th, 2011; compared to NDP 33% (unchanged from yesterday, but up from 31% on April 27^th, 2011). The Liberal party trails with just under one fifth of the popular vote (19%, unchanged from yesterday but down from 22% on April 27^th, 2011), followed by the Green party (6% down from 7%), and Bloc Quebecois (5%, unchanged). The 1% gain by the Tories suggests that Stephen Harper's warnings about an NDP government may be working. Alternatively, massage parlour allegations concerning Jack Layton may have take a slight toll.

Conservative & NDP Strongholds

On a regional basis, support for the Conservative party is highest in Alberta (58%), Manitoba / Saskatchewan (51%), and Ontario (40%). Support for the NDP party is highest in Quebec (43%), followed by British Columbia (39%).

Tory Majority Within Reach

These voting intention results, if held on Election Day, would likely yield approximately 150 Tory seats, 122 NDP seats, 35 Liberal seats, and 1 Bloc Quebecois seat, within a range of approximately plus or minus 10 seats for each party. These results may change as voting intentions change and are subject to the usual margins of error.

'It looks like the NDP surge has finally stalled and that the Tories have regained a bit of lost ground. It's not clear if is enough to give the Tories a majority' – Dr. Lorne Bozinoff

Methodology

The poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 3,480 randomly selected eligible voters across Canada. The poll was conducted on May 1^st, 2011.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 1.6%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample and regional results will be less accurate. Margins of error for both subsample (such as age, gender) results and regional results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp.

Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather captures opinion at one point in time. The poll was sponsored by Forum Research Inc. as a public service. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the country's leading survey research firms.

Copyright Forum Research Inc., 2011. All rights reserved. No reproduction without permission.

The key questions covered in the recent poll concerned:

Party Support

'If the federal election were held on Monday, which party would you be most likely to vote for?' + 'Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?' + 'Are you absolutely certain, very likely, somewhat likely or not very likely to vote in the federal election on Monday?'

Comparison to Previous Polls

(Decided/Leaning)

(Decided/Leaning Who Plan to Vote)