SOURCE: NewMediaMetrics


August 21, 2013 10:43 ET

NewMediaMetrics Reveals 8th Annual Fall TV Season Predictions, Giving Robin Williams's New Show, 'The Crazy Ones,' Highest Probability of Success

The 2013 LEAP™ TV Predictions Also Give Nods to 'The Michael J. Fox Show,' 'Sleepy Hollow' and 'Ironsides,' While Pegging 'Super Fun Night,' and 'Sean Saves the World' as Likely Failures

NEW YORK, NY--(Marketwired - Aug 21, 2013) - NewMediaMetrics ( has released its annual predictions for the fall TV season, and the brand-strategy, content-alignment company says "The Crazy Ones," starring Robin Williams and Sarah Michelle-Gellar as a father-daughter executive team at a big advertising firm, is a surefire hit.

Using its LEAP™ measurement system, the company has predicted the performance of the fall TV season with more than 80 percent accuracy for the past seven years.

According to NewMediaMetrics "The Crazy Ones" has an 87 percent probability of being renewed after its first run. And it's not because it will air on CBS -- it's because the show idea has raw potential to drive viewership.

Regarding some other shows this fall, Fox's "Sleepy Hollow" has an 83 percent probability of being renewed. While NBC's "Sean Saves the World" and ABC's "Super Fun Night" are expected to be cancelled because they score much lower (both have under a 37 percent probability of being renewed).

NewMediaMetrics developed the LEAP™ scoring system nine years ago, and it is used by content investors very early in the development process to quantify the value of TV (and digital video) shows before they are given the green light and go into production. LEAP™ scores are determined by a combination of measuring consumer Emotional Attachment (EA™) to each concept and statistical modeling of the scores. The higher the EA score, the more "pull" a show has to attract viewers in its first run.

Here are the top 10 shows for the fall 2013 TV season that have a high probability for success, according to NewMediaMetrics.

Rank   New for Fall 2013   Network
1   The Crazy Ones   CBS
2   The Michael J. Fox Show   NBC
3   Sleepy Hollow   Fox
4   Ironside   NBC
5   Hostages   CBS
6   Almost Human   Fox
7   The Blacklist   NBC
8   Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.   ABC
9   Once Upon a Time in Wonderland   ABC
10   Reign   CW

Raw ratings are only part of the story. With C3 measures, DVRs, on-demand and over-the top (OTT) options such as Hulu, investors in content must find and choose powerful content ideas that people will follow. 

"That's one reason why using LEAP™ is so important in today's environment," says Gary Reisman CEO and co-founder of NewMediaMetrics. "People who give shows high LEAP™ scores not only tune in when the show airs on TV, they will also follow and chat about it. In fact, they are also 57 percent more likely to DVR or follow a show to which they're highly attached or access it on demand, 50 percent more likely to view it in an OTT environment, and 40 percent more likely to chat about the show in social media. Having a strong LEAP™ score assures strong first viewing and strong back-end revenue potential because people follow content they are highly attached to across platforms."

Reisman continued, "It's time for content developers and investors to use predictive models that go beyond where the industry currently is. Our approach has been developed into statistical models rooted in nine years of data that predict the probability. New technologies, crowd-sourcing capabilities and modeling are now frequently used to improve performance across a wide array of industries. The high-risk/high-error rate currently accepted in the TV industry does not need to be a standard to live by."

Reisman added that viewers who are highly attached to a program view it 45 percent more often. The same viewers are 40 percent more engaged with the programming and pay as much as 2.5 times more attention to ads that run during shows, especially if those ads are for products and services to which they are also highly attached.

NewMediaMetrics can also cross-reference shows with media platforms and brands to inform marketers regarding the media most likely to drive increased ad performance.

Findings from the study that directly relate to where brands should align their media investments include:

  • Those with a high EA to American Express will also have a high attachment "24: Live Another Day" [Fox]
  • Working mothers with children aged 7-9 will be most highly attached to "The Crazy Ones" [CBS]
  • Consumers who are highly attached to Cheerios will also be highly attached to "Sleepy Hollow" [Fox] and "Hostages" [CBS]

LEAP™ Scores are gathered from over 3,000 consumers. Consumers are asked to rate show-concept statements and score their Emotional Attachment over a patent-protected 11-point scale. Scores are statistically modeled to predict the probability of renewal, predicted ratings and rank orders.

About New Media Metrics
NewMediaMetrics is a content-investment and alignment company. The company works with content developers to predict the marketplace value (or audience draw) in the early stages of development via the LEAP™ Content Investment Marketplace. Using LEAP™ developers can determine whether content is worthy of production investment. NMM also works with brand marketers to quantify the value of aligning their brands with specific TV, digital video and cross-platform media to aid their strategic media allocations.

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