October 2012 Housing Starts in Ontario

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Nov. 8, 2012) - Housing starts in Ontario were trending at 73,805 units in October, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)(1) of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 65,723 units in October, down from 70,240 units in September.

"Ontario home construction, led by the row and apartment sector, moved lower closer to levels consistent with demographic demand. While home construction will remain elevated over the next several months, starts should moderate further. Modest job growth versus the recent past, better supplied resale markets combined with a high level of units under construction are headwinds for the residential construction industry," said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC's Ontario Regional Economist.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

While multi-family construction weighed on starts in September, single-detached starts moved lower although remain quite stable so far in 2012. Year-to-date total urban starts have reached 62,730 in 2012, up 15 per cent from the same period one year ago. Almost half of Ontario urban centres are posting increases from the same period one year ago.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

(1) All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

Additional data is available upon request.

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A graph is available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/OntarioHousingENG.pdf