October 2015 Housing Starts in Thunder Bay

THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Nov. 9, 2015) - Housing starts in Thunder Bay, Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending at 316 units in October, up from 291 units in September according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) ¹ of housing starts.

"The upward momentum of the six-month moving average trend measure over the past several months continued in October despite the monthly SAAR for housing starts dipping. While economic underpinnings do not suggest further growth in housing demand, the current trend should continue for the short term," said Warren Philp, CMHC Market Analyst for the Thunder Bay CMA.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR was 290 units in October down from 408 units in September. This decline in the monthly SAAR was due to a dip in both single-detached and multiples in October.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

^[1] All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

Additional data is available upon request.

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A table and a graph are available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/1031852e.pdf