Ontario January 2013 Starts

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Feb. 8, 2013) - Housing starts in the Ontario region were trending at 65,914 units in January, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)¹ of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 41,912 units in January, down from 74,767 units in December.

"Ontario residential construction activity weakened in January. However, the magnitude of declines in January both on a monthly trend and year over year raw basis were exacerbated for two reasons. Firstly, monthly activity deviated significantly from the more stable six month moving average trend which is not uncommon early in a calendar year. This suggests some reversal is expected in the next few months. Secondly, relatively mild weather last January likely accelerated construction that normally would have started in future months," said Ted Tsiakopoulos, CMHC's Ontario Regional Economist.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next.

Urban single-detached and multi-family starts both posted declines in January although the decline was more pronounced in the multi-family home category which includes semi-detached, townhomes and apartments.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

¹ All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

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Additional data is available upon request.

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