SOURCE: BIGresearch

July 15, 2008 12:29 ET

Presidential Race Tightens in More Ways Than One, According to Latest BIGresearch Survey

Obama Has Slight Lead in Popularity but Losing Promoters

COLUMBUS, OH--(Marketwire - July 15, 2008) - In the race for the White House, Barack Obama and John McCain are just about even, according to BIGresearch's (http://www.bigresearch.com) July Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) survey of over 8,000 people. The candidates can use all the help they can get to make the move to Pennsylvania Avenue and it appears that a greater percentage of Republicans are willing to promote McCain than Democrats are Obama.

By using the Net Promoter® Score* (NPS), respondents were asked to rate, on a scale from 0 (Not at all likely) to 10 (Extremely likely), the probability they would recommend a candidate to a friend or coworker. 10 and 9 responses indicate Promoters, 8 and 7 responses are Passives and 0 through 6 are Detractors. NPS is calculated by subtracting the percentage of Detractors from the percentage of Promoters.

Even though they have a long way to go, McCain is picking up promoters and Obama is generally losing promoters. Here is a comparison of how each of the presidential candidates rank compared to the last three months according to their NPS among all consumers and by political party.

                        Obama                           McCain
             April   May     June    July    April   May     June    July
All          -48.8%  -51.3%  -42.9%  -44.6%  -56.0%  -58.9%  -53.0%  -47.6%
Democrats    -13.4%  -17.3%   +1.6%   +3.0   -82.2%  -86.4%  -83.0%  -82.7%
Republicans  -84.0%  -85.0%  -84.7%  -87.1%   -9.1%  -10.0%   -2.1%  +11.4%
Independents -51.9%  -57.0%  -50.6%  -53.4%  -65.5%  -69.9%  -63.3%  -58.9%

Source: BIGresearch, April 08 CIA (N=8180), May 08 CIA (N=8347), June 08
CIA (N=8351) & July 08 CIA (N=8361)
*Net Promoter, NPS and Net Promoter Score are trademarks of Satmetrix
Systems, Inc., Bain & Company, and Fred Reichheld

McCain's score within his own party has increased thirteen and a half points to a double digit number (+11.4% v. -2.1% in June), indicating Republicans are getting the word out about their candidate. Obama's score has increased only slightly within his party at about a point and a half (+3% v. +1.6% in June), demonstrating a need to ramp up grassroots efforts.

McCain has also gained some momentum among Independents; however, Obama's score still remains higher.

Regarding which candidate people would vote for if the election were held today, it's too close to call with Obama getting 37.8% v. McCain's 36.8%. Independents appear to hold the key with almost one-third (31.8%) still undecided.

If the Presidential Election were held today, who would you vote for?

            All Adults 18+  Republicans     Democrats       Independents
McCain      36.8%           74.7%           11.7%           29.0%
Obama       37.8%           7.8%            66.1%           33.8%
Undecided   20.7%           14.3%           18.6%           31.8%
Other       4.7%            3.2%            3.7%            5.5%

Source: BIGresearch, July 08 CIA (N=8361)

To view data tables for presidential candidates' NPS, please click here: http://info.bigresearch.com/

About BIGresearch

BIGresearch is a consumer intelligence firm providing analysis of behavior in areas of products and services, retail, financial services, automotive, and media. BIGresearch conducts the Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) Survey which monitors more than 7,500 consumers each month. The CIA delivers fresh, demand-based information on where the retail consumer is shopping and their changing behavior. Unlike indicators based on past performance, this data brings intelligence on where the retail consumer is going, their intentions and actions. They also conduct the Simultaneous Media Survey (SIMM) of more than 15,000 consumers twice each year.

BIGresearch's methodology provides the most accurate consumer information in the industry with a margin of error of +/- 1 percent. http://www.bigresearch.com

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