SOURCE: MarketResearch.com

MarketResearch.com

April 20, 2009 11:08 ET

Public Transportation & Green Energy to Impact "Big Oil"

ROCKVILLE, MD--(Marketwire - April 20, 2009) - MarketResearch.com has announced the addition of Mintel International's new report "Great Fuel Debate - US," to their collection of Energy market reports. For more information, visit http://www.marketresearch.com/redirect.asp?progid=67618&productid=2094145.

Aggregate expenditures on gasoline and diesel fuel reached $294.3 billion in 2008, an increase of 93% at current prices since 2003 and 66% at inflation-adjusted prices. However, this impressive gain is the result of increases in the average price per gallon of fuel rather than a surge in demand. In fact, the number of miles driven has declined, and volume sales declined 1% between 2003 and 2007 (and more dramatically in 2008).

Analysis and insights in this report include:

-- Market drivers and opportunities for innovation
-- The role of and growth of "green" vehicles, alternative fuels and other
   factors influencing the market
-- Ad spending and advertising strategies and themes, including web
   marketing, and advertising effectiveness by brand
-- Consumer opinions and behavior including data on who buys fuel, what
   influences purchase behavior at the retail level, and which sources of
   "green" information are considered trustworthy
-- Cluster analysis to identify consumer groups that are open to rethinking
   their opinions on energy companies

Scope and Themes
    What you need to know
    Definition
    Data sources
    Sales data
    Consumer data
    Abbreviations and terms
    Abbreviations
    Terms

Executive Summary
    Key points
    Economy portends difficult times ahead
    Gas is supplied by "Big Oil"
    Use of public transportation on the rise
    Retail service station market is changing
    We're green!
    Vast spends with minimal results
    Drivers cutting back on miles driven
    Regular gas good enough
    Scientists trusted most, "Big Oil" trusted least
    Gas is just gas, no matter who is selling it
    Adults concerned with energy dependence/carbon emissions more open to
     messaging
    Patriotism alive and well

Competitive Context
    Public transportation increasingly important
    Figure 3: U.S. public transportation passenger trips and miles,
     2001-07
    Figure 4: U.S. unlinked passenger trips, by mode, third quarter &
     Jan-Sept 2007/08
    Embracing the competition

Market Size and Forecast
    Revenue up on price increases, but demand is declining
    Figure 5: U.S Aggregate consumer expenditure on gasoline/diesel fuel,
     at current prices, 2003-13
    Figure 6: U.S Aggregate consumer expenditure on gasoline/diesel fuel,
     at inflation adjusted prices, 2003-13
    Figure 7: U.S motor fuel sales reported by states, in gallons, 2003-07

Segment Performance
    Key points
    Diesel is a niche segment in the U.S.
    Most gas used for local trips
    Figure 8: Aggregate consumer expenditure on auto fuel, by type of
     fuel, 2006 and 2008

Segment Performance -- Gasoline
    In a nutshell
    Recession to decrease demand and hold down revenue growth
    Sales and forecast-gasoline
    Figure 9: Aggregate consumer expenditure on gasoline, at current
     prices, 2003-13

Segment Performance -- Diesel Fuel
    In a nutshell
    Diesel now more costly than standard gasoline
    Figure 10: Aggregate consumer expenditures on diesel fuel, at current
     prices, 2003-13

Segment Performance -- Gasoline for Out-of-town Trips
    In a nutshell
    Growth slows for out-of-town trips
    Figure 11: Aggregate expenditures on gasoline for out-of-town trips,
     at current prices, 2003-13

Retail Distribution
    Key points
    More than 5,800 service stations have closed since 2003
    Figure 12: U.S service station count, 2003-08
    "Big Oil" controls fewer service stations
    Service stations trading hands
    Figure 13: Leading branded gasoline retailers, by number of stations,
     2005 & 2007
    Wal-Mart, Costco and other retailers now offer fuel

Market Drivers
    As gas prices rose and the economy sank, miles driven dropped
    Figure 14: U.S travel on all roads and streets, 2003-08
    Gas & diesel prices more than doubled between 2003 and 2008
    Figure 15: U.S. gasoline and on-highway diesel fuel prices, 2003-09
    Economy
    Hybrid and green vehicle sales decline in 2008
    Figure 16: U.S. hybrid & diesel automobiles, volume market share of
     all car sales, 2006, 2009 and 2015
    Figure 17: U.S. sales of hybrid vehicles, 2004-08
    Fuel efficiency relatively stagnant
    The potential impact of the Obama administration

Leading Companies
    Eight energy companies control three quarters of gallons sold
    Figure 18: Leading suppliers of gasoline, by volume, 2006 and 2007

Brand Qualities
    Repetition, facts, and simplicity missing from campaigns
    BP (BP, Amoco, Arco, Gulf)
    Chevron (Chevron, Texaco, Unocal)
    ExxonMobil (Exxon, Mobil)
    CITGO
    Shell

Innovation and Innovators
    Gasoline rebates inspire loyalty but can backfire too
    Convenient Payment -- Speedpass
    Green Gas Stations -- BP Helios House
    Awareness of BP's Helios stations is relatively high
    Figure 19: Awareness of BP Helios gas station, October 2008
    Figure 20: Awareness of BP Helios gas station, by gender, October 2008
    Figure 21: Awareness of BP Helios gas station, by age, October 2008
    The Hess truck is here...
    Co-branding comes to retail gasoline...

Spend on Advertising
    Key points
    Limited efficacy found for corporate re-branding efforts
    Only national brand ads have been seen
    When seen, most ads did not affect purchase frequency
    Figure 22: Advertising awareness and efficacy, by brand, October 2008
    Media spending focused at the corporate level
    Media spending on gas retailing is generally low; gas gets some
     attention
    Figure 23: Media expenditures for leading petroleum companies/gas
     stations, 2007*

Television Advertising
    Themes overview
    Theme -- Corporate image
    Figure 24: Television Spot BP, "People talk about oil alternatives,"
     March 2008
    Figure 25: Television Spot ExxonMobil, "Challenges: Erik, Mark, Neil,
     Kim," June 2008
    Figure 26: Television Spot Chevron, "Crowded Streets, People Boarding
     a Train," September 2008
    Theme -- Unique qualities in gas offerings
    Figure 27: Television Spot BP, "Animated scientist, black board" June
     2008
    Theme -- Traditional/station-focused
    Figure 28: Television Spot Phillips 66, "Man's navigation system
     demands he turn right," February 2008
    Figure 29: Television Spot Unocal, "Man wins free gas for life at a
     slot machine gas pump," June 2008

Web Marketing
    Introduction
    BP
    ExxonMobil
    Shell
    Chevron

Fuel Buyers
    More than eight in 10 adults purchase gas/diesel fuel
    Figure 30: Gasoline/diesel purchasers, by age, household income, and
     marital status, April 2007-June 2008
    Figure 31: Gallons of gasoline/diesel bought in past month, by gender
     and age, April 2007-June 2008

Miles Driven
    The average adult drives nearly 560 miles a month
    Figure 32: Number of miles driven per month, by gender, age, household
     income, region and presence of children, October 2008
    About one in five adults do not know how many miles they drive
    Figure 33: Awareness of miles driven per month, by gender, age,
     household income and number of people in household, October 2008

Gas Mileage
    Average MPG is relatively consistent across demographic groups
    Figure 34: MPG, by age and HH income, October 2008
    About one in five drivers do not know their average MPG
    Figure 35: Awareness of MPG, by gender, age, household income and
     region, October 2008

Gas Grade Preferences
    Regular gas prevails
    Figure 36: Incidence of buying gasoline/diesel, by grade/diesel, 2002-
     08
    Premium grades favored by higher-income households
    Figure 37: Incidence of buying gasoline/diesel, by grade/diesel, by
     gender, age and household income, April 2007-June 2008

Trusted Information Sources
    Introduction
    Scientists and friends trusted; energy companies and celebrities are
     not
    Figure 38: Level of trust in sources of information about energy and
     the environment, October 2008
    Older adults more skeptical
    Figure 39: Rarely or never believe in sources of information about
     energy and the environment, by age, October 2008
    Figure 40: Usually believe in information sources about energy and the
     environment, by age, October 2008

Perceived Value of Brand/Fuel Grades
    Most adults view fuel as commodity item
    Men place more importance on high quality of fuel
    Figure 41: Perception of fuel quality, by gender, October 2008
    Higher-income adults more likely to think fuel quality use is
     important
    Figure 42: Perception of fuel quality, by household income, October
     2008

How Gas Stations are Selected
    Patriotism trumps price
    Figure 43: Factors in gas station selection, October 2008
    Older adults want to buy American and shop locally
    Young adults more driven by convenience of location
    Figure 44: Factors in gas station selection, by age, October 2008
    Income has limited influence on station selection
    Figure 45: Factors in gas station selection, by household income,
     October 2008

Tech at the Pump
    Introduction: Cash is king
    New payment technologies interest men, younger adults
    Figure 46: Payment method preferences, by gender, October 2008
    Figure 47: Payment method preferences, by age, October 2008
    Video screen acceptance
    Figure 48: Attitudes towards video screens at the pump, by age,
     October 2008

Personal Behavior, Oil Dependency and the Environment
    Figure 49: Expected and declared changes in mileage driven, by age,
     October 2008
    Price influences demand for lower-income households
    Figure 50: Expected and declared changes in mileage driven, by
     household income, October 2008
    Wealthiest most committed to reducing oil dependency, emissions
    Figure 51: Interest in reducing oil dependency, carbon emissions, and
     interest in public transportation, by household income, October 2008

Investment Choices and Government Policy
    Introduction
    One third of adults will not buy stock in big energy companies
    Figure 52: Aversion to investing in "Big Oil," by household income,
     October 2008
    Only 11% think energy companies belong in their investment portfolio
    Figure 53: Interest in investing in energy companies, by household
     income, October 2008
    Tax, baby, tax
    Figure 54: Attitudes towards taxes on energy companies and on
     consumers at the pump, October 2008
    Most worried about reliance on fossil fuels, but less clear about
     solutions
    Figure 55: Energy policy opinions, October 2008
    "Drill baby drill!" resonates with 55+ but not with those under age 35
    Figure 56: Energy policy opinions, by age, October 2008
    Higher-income adults more worried about U.S. reliance on fossil fuels
    Figure 57: Energy policy opinions, by household income, October 2008
    Ethanol and E85 are not well known/understood
    Figure 58: Attitudes to ethanol and E85, October 2008
    Figure 59: Attitudes to ethanol and E85, by gender, October 2008
    Figure 60: Attitudes towards ethanol and E85, by household income,
     October 2008

Alternative Fuel/Vehicle Preferences
    To save money, many adults would modify their cars
    Few currently own flex fuel vehicles
    Figure 61: Attitudes towards alternative fuels, October 2008
    Figure 62: Attitudes towards alternative fuels, by gender, October
     2008

Impact of Ethnicity/Hispanic Origin
    Fuel buyers
    Figure 63: Gasoline/diesel purchasers, by ethnicity/Hispanic origin,
     April 2007-June 2008
    Average gallons purchased per month
    Figure 64: Gallons of gasoline/diesel bought in past month, by
     Ethnicity/Hispanic origin, April 2007-June 2008
    Awareness of miles driven
    Figure 65: Do not know miles driven per month and MPG, by
     ethnicity/Hispanic origin, October 2008
    Premium grades favored by minorities
    Figure 66: Incidence of buying gasoline/diesel, by grade/diesel, by
     Ethnicity/Hispanic origin, April 2007-June 2008
    Minorities less likely to cut back on driving
    Figure 67: Expected and declared changes in mileage driven, by
     race/Hispanic origin, October 2008
    Public transportation viewed more favorably by minorities
    Figure 68: Personal behavior, oil dependency/the environment, by
     race/Hispanic origin, October 2008

Appendix: Who Drives
    Almost all adults drive
    Northeasterners somewhat less likely to drive
    Figure 80: Driven a car in the last 30 days, by age, HH income,
     race/Hispanic origin and region, October 2008

Appendix: Other Useful Consumer Tables
    Consumers buy leading brands, but four in 10 have bought "other"
     brands
    Figure 81: Brand purchase, April 2007-June 2008
    Gas station selection varies somewhat by region
    Figure 82: Factors in gas station selection, by region, October 2008

Appendix: Trade Associations

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