Quebec May 2012 Housing Starts

MONTREAL, QUEBEC--(Marketwire - June 8, 2012) - In Quebec urban centres, the number of housing starts was trending at 39,800 units in May, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)⁽¹⁾ of housing starts. The standalone monthly SAAR was 35,500 units in May, down from 55,300 in April.

"Whereas housing starts of single detached homes have kept a stable rate, no consistent trend is yet observed this year as far as multi-family starts are concerned. That said, we still believe that the pace of housing starts for apartments will settle at a lower rate than that observed last year, as a result of less robust economic conditions and a greater supply in this market segment, " explains Kevin Hughes, Regional Economist at CMHC for Quebec

For some markets, CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. Analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets in some situations, as housing starts are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets, which can be quite unpredictable from one month to the next.

Elsewhere in the country, May's seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts decreased by 18.3 per cent in Ontario, and by 7.7 per cent in the Prairies. Urban starts increased by 6.4 per cent in Atlantic Canada and by 20.9 per cent in British Columbia. In each region, the decrease or increase was mainly due to changes in multiple starts.

⁽¹⁾All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

⁽²⁾CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642. CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

This release is also available at www.cmhc.ca.

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Housing Starts, Actual and SAAR*
			Actual		SAAR
			May	May	April	May
			2011	2012	2012	2012
			Revised	Preliminary	Revised	Preliminary
Canada, all areas			18,292	19,264	243,800	211,400
	Canada, rural areas		2,330	2,206	18,700	21,800
	Canada, urban centres**		15,962	17,058	225,100	189,600
		Canada, singles, urban centres	6,335	6,145	67,100	64,300
		Canada, multiples, urban centres	9,627	10,913	158,000	125,300
		Atlantic region, urban centres	930	866	7,800	8,300
		Quebec, urban centres	4,525	3,601	55,300	35,500
		Ontario, urban centres	5,033	6,604	94,600	77,300
		Prairie region, urban centres	2,957	3,700	45,400	41,900
		British Columbia, urban centres	2,517	2,287	22,000	26,600

Source: CMHC

*Seasonally adjusted annual rates

** Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.

Detailed data available upon request.