SOURCE: Trulia


July 03, 2012 10:00 ET

Rent Increases Outpace Modest Home Price Rises, Reports Trulia

Foreclosure Backlog Puts Recent Price Leaps in Phoenix, Miami, Cape Coral-Fort Myers, West Palm Beach, Orlando and Detroit at Risk

SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(Marketwire - Jul 3, 2012) - Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor, the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on the for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, these monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through June 30, 2012.

Asking Prices Rise in June, Fourth Solid Increase in Past Five Months
Asking prices on for-sale homes -- which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months -- increased 0.3 percent in June month over month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted. With the exception of nearly flat prices in May, prices rose in four of the past five months. Asking prices in June rose nationally 0.8 percent quarter over quarter (Q-o-Q), seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y) asking prices rose by 0.3 percent; excluding foreclosures, asking prices rose Y-o-Y by 1.7 percent. Nationally, 44 out of the 100 largest metros had Y-o-Y price increases, and 84 out of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases, seasonally adjusted.

June 2012 Trulia Price Monitor Summary
  % change in asking prices   # of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases   % change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures
Month-over-month, seasonally adjusted 0.3%   (not reported)   0.8%
Quarter-over-quarter, seasonally adjusted 0.8%   84   2.2%
Year-over-year 0.3%   44   1.7%

Despite Big Price Gains, Phoenix, Miami, and Detroit Face New Foreclosure Wave
Asking prices rose Y-o-Y by 15 percent or more in Phoenix and Miami. However, seven of the 10 metros with the largest increase in asking prices also have a high share of homes in foreclosure, including Phoenix, the Florida metros, and Detroit and its suburbs. These coming foreclosures threaten to reduce or reverse recent price gains in those markets. In contrast, Denver, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Little Rock, Austin and Colorado Springs all had price gains of more than 4 percent with a moderate or low share of homes in foreclosure.

Metros with Largest Price Increases
#   U.S. Metro   Y-o-Y % Change in Asking Prices, June 2012   Homes in Foreclosure, per 1,000 Housing Units
1   Phoenix, AZ   18.9%   25.5
2   Miami, FL   16.1%   33.7
3   Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL   14.9%   30.5
4   West Palm Beach, FL   9.6%   26.1
5   Denver, CO   7.2%   11.9
6   Orlando, FL   6.8%   29.3
7   Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI   6.5%   17.5
8   San Jose, CA   6.2%   10.0
9   Detroit, MI   5.2%   21.2
10   Pittsburgh, PA   5.1%   4.4

Note: Among 100 largest metros. Foreclosure data provided by RealtyTrac. National average is 10.2 homes in the foreclosure process per 1,000 housing units.

Rents Rise 5.4 Percent Nationally, Outpacing Price Increases
Despite widespread national asking price rises, rent increases outpaced price increases in 22 of the 25 largest rental markets. Nationally, rents were 5.4 percent higher in June than they were a year ago, and rents increased Y-o-Y in 24 of the 25 largest rental markets -- all except Las Vegas. Furthermore, rent increases accelerated between March and June in most rental markets, with rents in San Francisco rising 14.7 percent Y-o-Y in June from 10.9 percent in March.

Metros with Largest Rent Increases
#   U.S. Metro   Y-o-Y % Change in Asking Rent, June 2012   Y-o-Y % Change in Asking Rent, March 2012
1   San Francisco, CA   14.7%   10.9%
2   Oakland, CA   11.2%   7.0%
3   Denver, CO   10.9%   9.4%
4   Miami, FL   10.5%   11.2%
5   Boston, MA   10.3%   8.6%


  • "We saw asking prices start to rise in February and predicted that other home price indexes would report sales price increases this summer for those homes -- and they have," said Jed Kolko, Trulia's Chief Economist. "Since February, asking prices showed solid gains in four out of five months, including in June, so I expect to see the sales-price indexes show further increases in the months to come."

  • "The huge price gains we've seen in Miami and Phoenix are not built to last. These increases will shrink or reverse as the backlogged foreclosures in these metros hit the market," said Jed Kolko, Trulia's Chief Economist. "In contrast, Denver, San Jose and Austin, which were spared the worst of the housing crisis, have strong price growth and strong job growth without a foreclosure overhang. Their recent price gains are less dramatic than Miami and Phoenix but are less at risk. Slow and steady wins the housing recovery."


  • To download the full list of price and rent changes for the largest metro areas, see here.
  • To download a graph of price changes from November 2010 to June 2012, see here.

To view the full methodology and 2012 release schedule, see here. The next release of the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor will be Tuesday, August 7, at 10AM ET.

Trulia gives home buyers, sellers, owners and renters the inside scoop on properties, places and real estate professionals. Trulia has unique info on the areas people want to live that can't be found anywhere else: users can learn about agents, neighborhoods, schools, crime and even ask the local community questions. Real estate professionals use Trulia to connect with millions of transaction-ready buyers and sellers each month via our hyper local advertising services, social recommendations and top-rated mobile apps. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco and is backed by Accel Partners and Sequoia Capital. Trulia is a registered trademark of Trulia, Inc.

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