SOURCE: National University System Institute for Policy Research

November 14, 2013 13:29 ET

Report: San Diego Mayoral Special Election Is a "Race to the Finish Line"

Late Absentee, Election Day Voters Will Play Important Role in Mayoral Race

SAN DIEGO, CA--(Marketwired - Nov 14, 2013) - With less than a week before Election Day, more than a third of all projected voters have cast their ballots in the San Diego mayoral special election. With nearly 200,000 votes left to be cast, the mayoral candidates are in a race to the finish line. That is the assessment of a new report authored by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR), a local think-tank.

Following the resignation of former Mayor Bob Filner in late August, three major candidates have emerged to replace him. With a compressed election time frame, it is unclear how the electorate has responded to the political tactics and turnout strategies used by these campaigns. Using data from the Registrar of Voters office and GIS mapping software, NUSIPR evaluated early precinct returns in the November 19th election.

Based on ballot returns as of November 12th, NUSIPR found that:

  • Thirty-five percent of all projected special election voters have cast their ballots. Overall, NUSIPR projects that 46% of the city electorate (313,000 voters) will cast ballots in the election.

  • Democratic turnout is lagging Republican turnout. Despite outnumbering Republicans in the City by more than 90,000 voters, heavily Democratic precincts are returning fewer absentee ballots and fewer ballots overall than GOP precincts.

  • Turnout is low in Latino precincts and south of Interstate 8 neighborhoods. In most southeastern & border precincts, more than 85% of registered voters have not yet cast a ballot.

  • Election Day voters will make an impact on November 19th. As many as 100,000 voters will cast ballots at polling locations on Election Day, leaving the outcome of the race unknown.

"Unlike the November 2012 mayoral general election, voter turnout has been low and concentrated in only a handful of neighborhoods," remarked Vince Vasquez, NUSIPR Senior Policy Analyst and author of the report. "With nearly two-thirds of the vote yet to be cast, candidates will need to be reaching voters and walking precincts up to minute the polls close on Election Day."

The complete copy of the report can be found at the NUSIPR website,

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research

The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan, non-profit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region's residents.

NUSIPR publishes regular independent research and analysis for the public on a range of topics, including unemployment, business growth, and the San Diego housing market. The Institute also works collaboratively with clients to develop high quality research products that are tailored to their policy needs.

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