LANSING, MI--(Marketwire - February 25, 2009) - Michigan retailers expect a small decrease in
sales this year, following a January in which sales declined for nearly
two-thirds of the industry, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint
project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve
Bank of Chicago.
The monthly survey of MRA members found that, on average, retailers expect
a decrease of 0.8 percent in their annual sales compared to 2008, despite
an increase in optimism for the next three months.
"Coming off a poor January and the worst holiday season in decades, it's no
surprise that retailers are lowering expectations for the year. But a small
rise in their short-term outlook suggests their projections could turn
around quickly as more details of the federal stimulus package become known
and the economy gets moving again," said James P. Hallan, MRA president and
CEO.
The Michigan Retail Index survey for January found that 23 percent of
retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 64 percent
recorded declines and 13 percent saw no change. The results create a
seasonally adjusted performance index of 29.0, down from 30.4 in December.
Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in positive activity,
while values below 50 indicate a decrease.
Looking ahead, 28 percent of retailers said they expect higher sales during
February - April over the same period last year, while 44 percent project a
decrease and 28 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted
outlook index at 41.6, up from 36.6 in December.
Note: William Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Advisor with the
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151. Also,
regional, local and trade-specific data were not available this month.
Michigan Retail Index
January 2009 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at
www.retailers.com/news/retailindex.html
January Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate December results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 23 (23) 64 (66) 13 (11) 29.0 (30.4) 168 (135)
Inventory 11 (15) 54 (54) 35 (31) 32.7 (35.7) 167 (135)
Prices 37 (35) 11 (19) 52 (46) 63.2 (58.9) 166 (134)
Promotions 32 (39) 11 (11) 57 (50) 63.0 (61.9) 167 (135)
Hiring 2 (5) 31 (27) 67 (68) 36.9 (39.1) 167 (135)
Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory,
prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate December results)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 28 (20) 44 (59) 28 (21) 41.6 (36.6) 166 (135)
Inventory 14 (13) 47 (58) 39 (29) 32.3 (32.8) 165 (135)
Prices 32 (37) 11 (14) 57 (49) 61.5 (61.8) 165 (134)
Promotions 43 (43) 11 (9) 46 (48) 63.5 (72.6) 166 (135)
Hiring 7 (3) 26 (27) 67 (70) 41.2 (41.0) 165 (135)
January Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in
parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months.)
% Increased % Decreased % No Change
North n.a. n.a. n.a.
West n.a. n.a. n.a.
Central n.a. n.a. n.a.
East n.a. n.a. n.a.
Southeast n.a. n.a. n.a.
Question of the Month
What is your current projection for your sales growth in 2009?
Avg. -0.8%
*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum
of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent
indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the
U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above
50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50
indicate a decrease.
Contact Information: Contact:
Tom Scott
517.372.5656