Rock Energy Inc.
TSX : RE

Rock Energy Inc.

December 14, 2015 10:08 ET

Rock Energy Inc. Announces a 38% Increase in Total Proven Plus Probable Reserves as of November 30, 2015; Replacing 439% of Its Production During the Period

CALGARY, ALBERTA--(Marketwired - Dec. 14, 2015) - Rock Energy Inc. (TSX:RE) ("Rock" or the "Company") is pleased to report a corporate reserves update effective November 30, 2015. This reserves update was undertaken by Rock's independent reserve evaluator, GLJ Petroleum Consultants ("GLJ"). The report on such reserves (the "GLJ Report") was prepared in accordance with definition, standards and procedures contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI 51-101"). The information set forth below summarizes the oil, liquids and natural gas reserves and the net present value of future net revenues from those reserves using forecast prices and costs. Unless stated otherwise, all reserve volumes referred to in this document are "gross" reserves which are the Company's interest share of reserves (operated and non-operated) before deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests. The key results of the report can be summarized as follows:

  • Increased its Total Proven plus Probable reserves by 38% from 12.5 million boe at 2014 year-end to 17.2 million boe (98% heavy and light oil and natural gas liquids). This increase in reserves was accomplished due to the success of the Laporte/Mantario Polymer Flood project as well as the continued success of the Onward Viking resource play development;
  • Replaced 439% of its production during the period;
  • Generated a corporate reserve value for the Total Proved plus Probable of $223.1 million (BTAX NPV discounted at 10%) despite the 33% reduction in the price forecast;
  • Increased the Reserve Life Index (RLI) to 12.0 years on its Total Proven plus Probable reserves (assuming Q3/2015 average production of 3,933 boepd); and
  • Focused the Company into three assets, two of which the Company has discovered and developed, representing 99% of the value of the Company.

Corporate Net Asset Value

Based on Rock's updated reserve value, management estimates that the corporate net asset value of the Company is $3.70/share (basic) as detailed below:

Reserve Value (Total Proved plus Probable, BTAX NPV discounted at 10%) $223.1 million
Undeveloped Land (105,830 acres at approximately $150/acre (management estimate)) $15.9 million
Total assets $239.0 million
Less Debt (as of Sept 30, 2015) $63.4 million
Total Net Assets $175.6 million
Basic Shares outstanding (as of Sept 30, 2015) 47.5 million
Net Asset Value per basic share $3.70
Reserves and Value by Property
Total Proved Total Proved Plus Probable
Reserves (MBOE) NPV (BTAX 10%) Reserves (MBOE) NPV (BTAX 10%)
Laporte/Mantario 5,647 $80.5M (61%) 7,841 $124.6M (56%)
Onward Light (Viking) 4,115 $37.6M (28%) 6,562 $76.2M (34%)
Onward Heavy 1,455 $13.1M (10%) 2,370 $20.7M (9%)
Other 322 $0.9M (1%) 472 $1.6M (1%)
Total 11,539 $132.1M 17,245 $223.1M

The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effect of aggregation.

Laporte/Mantario

The increase in corporate reserves was partially due to the success of the Laporte/Mantario Polymer Flood. This reserve increase comes from the increased pool size as a result of the successful step out drilling program and increased recovery factor attributable to the successful implementation of the enhanced oil recovery project.

Based on the performance to date of the polymer injection program and well response, GLJ has recognized an increased recovery factor (in the Proved plus Probable reserve category) from 20% at 2014 year-end to 25% at November 30, 2015. The Proved plus Probable reserves for the Polymer flood increased from 5.7 million boe to 7.8 million boe, and the value has increased from $116 million to $125 million (56% of total corporate value) from year-end 2014 to November 30, 2015. The increase in value was limited by the 33% reduction in the oil price forecast. Polymer injection has been ongoing since March 2015 and production has averaged 2,200-2,400 bopd for the past 9 months. Rock and GLJ are forecasting the oil production to remain flat at 2,200-2,400 bopd through 2016.

Onward Viking

Due to the ongoing success of the Onward Viking development, GLJ has been able to book a total of 169 Total Proved plus Probable undeveloped drilling locations of the over 600 previously unbooked locations management has identified. This compares to a total of 55 Proved plus Probable undeveloped locations at the end of 2014. Viking Proved plus Probable Reserves increased from 3.2 million boe to 6.6 million boe from December 31, 2014 to November 30, 2015, and the reserve value has increased from $58 million to $76 million (34% of total corporate value) over the same period.

Rock's President and CEO Allen Bey commented "This updated engineering report completed by our third party independent engineers (GLJ) is another significant step in validating the success we are having at both our Laporte/Mantario and in our Onward Viking plays. The Company has been able to add a very significant amount of reserves during the first 11 months of 2015 with limited capital spending in a very difficult pricing environment. In addition, our rationalization efforts over the last two years have concentrated our assets into three key properties in Saskatchewan, representing 97% of our production and 99% of our value. While focusing our asset base, the Company has also been very successful in reducing our inactive well count to 31 net wells of a total of 220 net wells, generating a LLR (License Liability Rating) in Saskatchewan of over 13 (effective November 30, 2015). This illustrates a very low abandonment and reclamation obligation. We believe Rock is well positioned with a solid asset base to prosper through the coming years."

RESERVES DATA

More detailed information in respect of reserves and net present value which is contained in the GLJ Report is set forth below.

Disclosure of Reserves Data

The reserves data set forth below (the "Reserves Data") is based upon an evaluation by GLJ with an effective date of November 30, 2015 contained in the GLJ Report. The Reserves Data summarizes the oil, liquids and natural gas reserves of the Corporation and the net present values of future net revenue for these reserves using forecast prices and costs. The GLJ Report has been prepared in accordance with the standards contained in the COGE Handbook and the reserve definitions contained in NI 51-101. The Company engaged GLJ to provide an evaluation of proved and proved plus probable reserves and no attempt was made to evaluate possible reserves. All of Rock's reserves are in Canada and, specifically, in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

We have adopted the standard of 6 Mcf:1boe when converting natural gas to boes. Boes may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf per barrel is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of the 6:1 conversion ratio, utilizing the 6:1 conversion ratio may be misleading as an indication of value.

All evaluations and reviews of future net cash flow are stated prior to any provision for interest costs or general and administrative costs and after the deduction of estimated future capital expenditures for wells to which reserves have been assigned. It should not be assumed that the estimated future net cash flow shown below is representative of the fair market value of the Corporation's properties. There is no assurance that such price and cost assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The recovery and reserve estimates of crude oil, natural gas liquids ("NGLs") and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. Actual crude oil, NGLs and natural gas reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided herein.

Reserves Data (Forecast Prices and Costs)

SUMMARY OF WORKING INTEREST OIL AND GAS RESERVES
AND NET PRESENT VALUES OF FUTURE NET REVENUE
As of November 30, 2015
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS
RESERVES
LIGHT AND MEDIUM CRUDE OIL HEAVY CRUDE OIL CONVENTIONAL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS TOTAL
RESERVES CATEGORY Gross
(Mbbl)
Gross
(Mbbl)
Gross
(MMcf)
Gross
(Mbbl)
Gross
(Mboe)
PROVED
Developed Producing 807 5,675 943 20 6,659
Developed Non-producing 125 63 568 9 292
Undeveloped 3,224 1,364 - - 4,588
TOTAL PROVED 4,157 7,102 1,512 29 11,539
PROBABLE 2,460 3,109 697 20 5,705
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE 6,617 10,211 2,209 48 17,245
NET PRESENT VALUES OF FUTURE NET REVENUE
BEFORE INCOME TAXES DISCOUNTED AT (%/year) AFTER INCOME TAXES DISCOUNTED AT (%/year) UNIT VALUE BEFORE INCOME TAX DISCOUNTED AT 10%/YEAR
RESERVES CATEGORY 0
(M$)
5
(M$)
10
(M$)
15
(M$)
20
(M$)
0
(M$)
5
(M$)
10
(M$)
15
(M$)
20
(M$)

($/BOE)
PROVED
Developed Producing 147,349 122,429 104,521 91,241 81,108 147,349 122,429 104,521 91,241 81,108 16.31
Developed Non-Producing 3,521 2,683 1,999 1,477 1,082 3,521 2,683 1,999 1,477 1,082 7.50
Undeveloped 64,145 42,319 25,643 13,818 5,574 62,072 41,311 25,136 13,554 5,433 5.74
TOTAL PROVED 215,016 167,430 132,163 106,536 87,765 212,942 166,423 131,655 106,272 87,623 11.86
PROBABLE 212,836 135,252 90,893 64,188 47,207 154,771 100,906 69,394 50,099 37,621 17.38
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE 427,852 302,683 223,056 170,723 134,972 367,714 267,329 201,050 156,370 125,244 13.62
TOTAL FUTURE NET REVENUE
(UNDISCOUNTED)
As of November 30, 2015
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS
RESERVES CATEGORY REVENUE
(M$)
ROYALTIES
(M$)
OPERATING COSTS
(M$)
DEVELOPMENT COSTS
(M$)
WELL ABANDONMENT AND RECLAMATION COSTS
(M$)
FUTURE NET REVENUE BEFORE INCOME TAXES
(M$)
INCOME TAXES
(M$)
FUTURE NET REVENUE AFTER INCOME TAXES
(M$)
Total Proved Reserves 743,400 37,206 344,282 118,705 28,191 215,016 2,074 212,942
Total Proved Plus Probable Reserves 1,192,279 80,149 489,655 158,632 35,990 427,852 60,138 367,714

Notes to Reserves Data Tables:

  1. Columns may not add due to rounding.
  2. The crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas reserve estimates presented in the GLJ Report are based on the definitions and guidelines contained in the COGE Handbook.
  3. The revenue forecasts included in the GLJ Report include the estimated costs to abandon and reclaim the wells assigned reserves in the GLJ Report and to disconnect these wells from the gathering system. No costs have been included for the abandonment and reclamation of surface facilities or gathering systems. Also, no costs have been included in the GLJ Report for the abandonment and reclamation of any of Rock's wells which have been assigned no reserves in the GLJ Report.
  4. The forecast price and cost assumptions assume the continuance of current laws and regulations.
  5. The extent and character of all factual data supplied to GLJ were accepted by GLJ as represented. No field inspection was conducted.

Future Development Costs

The following table sets forth development costs deducted in the estimation of the corporation's future net revenue attributable to the reserve categories noted below.

Future Development Costs
(Undiscounted)
Year Total Proved Reserves
($000)
Total Proved Plus Probable Reserves
($000)
2016 8,455 25,489
2017 60,957 62,830
2018 49,293 54,095
2019 - 16,074
2020 - -
Thereafter - 144
Total 118,705 158,632

The Corporation expects to have sufficient internally generated cash flow and available credit facilities to finance the future development costs noted above.

Forecast Prices and Costs

The forecast cost and price assumptions assume increases in wellhead selling prices and take into account inflation with respect to future operating and capital costs. Crude oil and natural gas benchmark reference pricing, as at October 1, 2015, inflation and exchange rates utilized by GLJ in the GLJ Report, which were GLJ's then current forecasts at the date of the GLJ Report, were as follows:

SUMMARY OF PRICING AND INFLATION RATE ASSUMPTIONS
As of October 1, 2015
FORECAST PRICES AND COSTS
OIL NATURAL GAS NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS
Year WTI Cushing Oklahoma ($US/Bbl) Edmonton Par Price 40° API ($Cdn/Bbl) Cromer
Medium Crude
29° API ($Cdn/Bbl)
Hardisty Heavy Crude
12° API ($Cdn/Bbl)
AECO Gas Price ($Cdn/Mmbtu) Edmonton
Pentanes Plus
($Cdn/Bbl)
Edmonton
Propane
($Cdn/Bbl)
Edmonton
Butane
($Cdn/Bbl)
Spec
Ethane
($Cdn/Bbl)
INFLATION RATES(1)
%/Year
EXCHANGE RATE(2)
($Cdn/$US)
Forecast
2015Q4 45.00 56.00 52.08 36.69 2.97 58.80 14.00 36.40 9.54 2.0 0.750
2016 50.00 61.33 57.04 42.30 3.43 65.63 15.33 39.87 11.12 2.0 0.750
2017 55.00 64.52 60.00 46.23 3.62 69.03 19.35 45.16 11.77 2.0 0.775
2018 60.00 68.75 63.94 50.22 3.72 73.56 24.06 51.56 12.12 2.0 0.800
2019 65.00 72.73 67.64 54.13 3.81 77.82 25.45 54.55 12.44 2.0 0.8250
2020 70.00 76.47 71.12 57.96 3.90 81.82 26.76 57.35 12.74 2.0 0.8500
2021 75.00 82.35 76.59 63.56 4.10 88.12 28.82 61.76 13.43 2.0 0.8500
2022 80.00 88.24 82.06 69.32 4.30 94.41 30.88 66.18 14.12 2.0 0.8500
2023 85.00 94.12 87.53 75.24 4.50 100.71 32.94 70.59 14.81 2.0 0.8500
2024 89.63 98.41 91.52 78.71 4.78 105.30 34.44 73.81 15.77 2.0 0.8500
Thereafter +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year +2%/year

Notes:

  1. Inflation rates for forecasting prices and costs.
  2. Exchange rates used to generate the benchmark reference prices in this table.

For further information please visit Rock's website at www.rockenergy.ca.

Forward-Looking Statements and Advisories

Certain statements contained in this document constitute forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events or the Company's future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "budget", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "expect", "forecast", "may", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "targeting", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe" and similar expressions. In particular, this document contains forward-looking statements pertaining to the following: management's assessment of Rock's plans and future operations, production, reserves, revenue, commodity prices, currency exchange rates, operating expenses, transportation, administrative expenditures, royalty rates, interest expense, future income taxes, drilling plans, acquisitions and dispositions, funds from operations, capital expenditure programs, debt levels, recovery factors and timing of project payout.

These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to: the effect of general economic conditions, industry conditions, regulatory and taxation regimes, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, the availability of services, imprecision of reserve estimates, geological, technical, drilling and processing problems, environmental risks, weather, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility, the ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources and competition from other industry participants for, among other things, capital, services, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel, any of which may cause actual results or events to differ materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking statements.

Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. The Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward looking statements are reasonable but no assurance can be given that these expectations will prove to be correct and such forward-looking statements included in this document should not be unduly relied upon. These statements speak only as of the date of this document, as the case may be. The Company does not intend, and does not assume any obligation, to update these forward-looking statements, except as required by applicable law.

Statements relating to "reserves" or "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions that the resources and reserves described can be profitably produced in the future.

The forward-looking statements contained in this document are expressly qualified by this cautionary statement. The Company does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements except as required by securities laws or regulations.

This document may disclose drilling locations in four categories: (i) proved undeveloped locations; (ii) probable undeveloped locations; iii) unbooked locations; and, iv) an aggregate total of (i), (ii) and (iii). Proved undeveloped locations and probable undeveloped locations are booked and derived from Rock's most recent independent reserves evaluation as prepared by GLJ Petroleum Consultants Ltd. as of November 30, 2015 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal estimates based on Rock's prospective acreage and an assumption as to the number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources. Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of the Rock's multi-year drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Rock will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which the Rock will actually drill wells is ultimately dependent upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been derisked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such unbooked drilling locations, the majority of other unbooked drilling locations are farther away from existing wells where management has less information about the characteristics of the reservoir and therefore there is more uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production.

Abbreviations

bbl barrel(s) mbbls thousand barrels
bbl/d barrel(s) per day mboe thousand barrels of oil equivalent
bcf billion cubic feet mboed thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day
boe barrels of oil equivalent mcf thousand cubic feet
boed barrels of oil equivalent per day mmcf million cubic feet
bps basis points mmbbls million barrels
CDOR Certificate of Deposit Offered Rate mmboe million barrels of oil equivalent
GJ gigajoule NGL natural gas liquids
hectare 1 hectare is equal to 2.47 acres WTI West Texas Intermediate
km kilometer WCS Western Canadian Select

Contact Information

  • Rock Energy Inc.
    Allen J. Bey
    President and Chief Executive Officer
    403.218.4380

    Rock Energy Inc.
    Todd Hirtle
    Vice President Finance and Chief Financial Officer
    403.218.4380
    www.rockenergy.ca