September 2015 Housing Starts in Guelph

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Oct. 8, 2015) - Housing starts in the Guelph Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) were trending higher at 1,414 units in September compared to 1,352 units in August, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) ^[1] of housing starts.

"Total starts trended up again, with starts for single-detached and townhouses trending up this month. The trend for starts of single-detached and row homes reached the highest level in more than three years. With no apartment starts in September, the trend was flat. Strong employment and population growth continue to support housing demand. A tight resale market has resulted in spill-over demand into the new home market," said Erica McLerie, Senior Market Analyst at CMHC.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations, analysing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite variable from one month to the next. The multiples segment includes apartments, rows and semi-detached homes.

The SAAR of total housing starts was 798 units in September, down from 3,127 units in August, due to the absence of apartment starts in September. The volatility of apartment starts is reflected in the SAAR numbers this month. For the first three quarters of 2015, housing starts have declined by 12.5 per cent due to lower apartment starts.

Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

^[1]All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) - that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.

Additional data is available upon request.

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Tables and a graph are available at the following address: http://media3.marketwire.com/docs/1027895e.pdf