-- Cell and module capacity will overshoot demand by twofold in 2009 to reach 10.4 GW, precipitating a shakeout that will eliminate all but the top players. -- Silicon availability will become increasingly irrelevant as module players seek to cut inventory. But the resulting price reductions will flatten out by 2011, bringing solar closer to grid parity and enabling the market to grow to $70 billion across 18.5 GW in 2013. -- As the most readily financeable technology, crystalline silicon will continue to dominate the market this year. But competing thin-film technologies, including amorphous silicon and CdTe, will continue to grow aggressively, and CIGS also stands to gain overall despite expectations of widespread company failure. -- As the Spanish market dwindles, Germany will again become Europe's buyer of last resort. The U.S. market growth, meanwhile, will depend heavily on the government stimulus package just signed."Last year, we successfully predicted that an oversupply of solar modules and dwindling project financing would lead to a shakeout," said Sullivan. "Now we're projecting that in coming years the decrease in solar module prices will begin to taper off and that demand will pick back up, setting the stage for even broader adoption." "Finding the Solar Market's Nadir" is part of Lux Research's Solar Intelligence Service. Clients subscribing to this service receive continuous research on solar industry market trends and forecasts, ongoing technology scouting reports and proprietary data points in the weekly Lux Research Solar Journal and on-demand inquiry with Lux Research analysts. About Lux Research Lux Research provides strategic advice and on-going intelligence for emerging technologies. Leaders in business, finance and government rely on us to help them make informed strategic decisions. Through our unique research approach focused on primary research and our extensive global network, we deliver insight, connections and competitive advantage to our clients. Visit www.luxresearchinc.com for more information.
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