SOURCE: Michigan Retailers Association

Michigan Retailers Association

June 22, 2016 16:10 ET

Solid May Retail Sales Add to Positive Trend, According to MRA

LANSING, MI--(Marketwired - June 22, 2016) - Overall Michigan retail sales remained strong in May, the fourth consecutive month of positive performance, according to the Michigan Retail Index, a joint project of Michigan Retailers Association (MRA) and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Seventy-eight percent of retailers reported May sales were better than or as good as a year ago, the strongest showing since July 2015.

"Michigan's unemployment rate fell in May. Consumer confidence rose in May. It's no surprise, then, that shoppers were in a good state of mind and remained willing to make purchases," said MRA President and CEO James P. Hallan.

Retail sales increased across the U.S. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales climbed 0.4 percent, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

The May Michigan Retail Index survey found 54 percent of Michigan retailers increased sales over the same month last year, while 22 percent recorded declines and 24 percent reported no change. The results create a seasonally adjusted performance index of 65.1, down slightly from the year's high of 66.0 in April. A year ago May the performance index stood at 47.4.

The 100-point index gauges the performance of the state's overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Detroit branch. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.

Looking forward, 67 percent of retailers expect sales during June-August to increase over the same period last year, while 10 percent project a decrease and 23 percent no change. That puts the seasonally adjusted outlook index at 74.6, down from 80.1 in April. A year ago May, the outlook index stood at 73.

Note: William Strauss, senior economist and economic advisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, can be reached at 312.322.8151.

Michigan Retail Index
May 2016 results
Index figures dating to July 1994 are available at http://www.retailers.com/mra/news/michigan-retail-index.html.

May Performance
Retailers reporting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same month a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate April results)

  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 54 (60) 22 (25) 24 (15) 65.1 (66.0) 63 (75)
Inventory 53 (49) 14 (14) 33 (37) 61.8 (61.1) 63 (75)
Prices 7 (8) 6 (4) 87 (88) 47.9 (51.2) 63 (75)
Promotions 31 (31) 3 (5) 66 (64) 63.0 (63.1) 62 (75)
Hiring 21 (19) 8 (4) 71 (77) 55.3 (57.6) 62 (74)
           

Outlook for Next 3 Months
Retailers expecting increased, decreased or unchanged sales, inventory, prices, promotions and hiring compared to the same period a year ago
(numbers in parentheses indicate April results)

  % Increased % Decreased % No Change Index* Responses
Sales 67 (76) 10 (8) 23 (16) 74.6 (80.1) 61 (70)
Inventory 40 (47) 19 (27) 41 (26) 57.9 (55.0) 63 (74)
Prices 16 (9) 3 (4) 81 (87) 56.5 (52.2) 63 (74)
Promotions 37 (43) 3 (7) 60 (50) 67.1 (67.5) 62 (74)
Hiring 18 (24) 6 (4) 76 (72) 54.7 (57.5) 63 (74)
           

May Sales Performance & Outlook for Next 3 Months, by Region
(the first number indicates sales performance for the month; the number in parentheses indicates outlook for the next three months)

 % Increased% Decreased% No Change
North43 (72)
21 (14)36 (14)
West56 (67)
11 (11)
33 (22)
Central63 (86)
37 (0)0 (14)
East50 (0)50 (0)
0 (100)
Southeast61 (65)
28 (12)11 (23)
    

*Seasonally adjusted diffusion index. A diffusion index, which is the sum of the percent of respondents indicating increase and half the percent indicating no change, is calculated and then seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau's X-11 Seasonal Adjustment procedure. Index values above 50 generally indicate an increase in activity, while values below 50 indicate a decrease.

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