SOURCE: Stratfor

Stratfor

March 09, 2015 09:33 ET

Stratfor Explores Russia's Military Options in Ukraine

Editorial Series by Leading Geopolitical Intelligence Firm Examines Potential Scenarios and the Feasibility of Military Operations in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwired - Mar 9, 2015) -  As a fragile cease-fire agreement continues to unfold in the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, Stratfor today launched a new editorial series exploring potential scenarios under which Russian and Western forces might come into direct conflict in the region should current efforts to implement the cease-fire fail.

Stratfor's series -- Russia's Military Options in Ukraine -- is a scenario-planning exercise, not a forecast of impending war, that is intended as a means to measure the intersection of political intent with political will as constrained by actual military capability. Led by Stratfor's military analysts, the series reflects the results of extensive examination of Russia and NATO's military capabilities and the constraints on their respective forces.

"A key question that looms over this conflict is whether Russia will eventually pursue further military action to help secure its interests in Ukraine and create a neutral buffer with more defensible borders," said Stratfor military analyst Paul Floyd. "In an effort to answer this question, we looked at a range of military options in the region that Russia might consider to address its security concerns in Ukraine and also what constraints it would encounter in such scenarios. It's one thing to say Russia can try to take eastern Ukraine; it's another to have the full capabilities to do it militarily."

Stratfor's three-part editorial series on Russia's military options covers:

  • Part 1, "Gaming a Russian Offensive" - An overview of military scenarios that Russia could potentially exercise in Ukraine, including harassment operations and an all out invasion of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper River.

    VIDEO: Watch a narrated animation from Stratfor outlining six offensive military options Russia could conduct in Ukraine.

  • Part 2, "What the West Could Do" - A look at the potential responses from the United States or a coalition of NATO countries if Russia were to pursue any of the military scenarios identified by Stratfor.

  • Part 3, "Russia Weighs the Cost" - An examination of the cost and benefits Russian military planners and policymakers will have to consider when deciding whether any of the military options in Ukraine serve a strategic purpose and meet their political requirements.

Part one of Stratfor's editorial series, "Russia's Military Options in Ukraine," can be accessed on the company's website at www.stratfor.com/analysis/gaming-russian-offensive.

VIDEO: Stratfor's George Friedman discusses the concept of wargaming with an eye toward the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

About Stratfor
Stratfor is a leading geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, the company helps customers and subscribers anticipate opportunities and better understand the broader impact of regional and international developments. Full analysis on global events and more details on the company can be found on Stratfor's website at: www.stratfor.com.