AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwired - October 10, 2016) - As the world watches the impending political transition unfold in the United States, leading geopolitical intelligence platform Stratfor forecasts hedged diplomatic efforts, punted trade negotiations and sluggish economic growth to define the months ahead. According to Stratfor's Fourth-Quarter Forecast for 2016, restless U.S. allies will also wait to see whether they can continue to count on Washington's commitments while others will seek to push their own agendas.
"For countries accustomed to living under U.S. scrutiny, a politically distracted Washington over the next three months creates a window of opportunity," said Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon. That will include North Korea accelerating development of a demonstrable nuclear weapon and corresponding delivery system as well as Russian efforts to push negotiations on Ukraine, European sanctions and Syria.
Stratfor also expects to see an economically skittish Europe throughout the quarter with renewed focus on troubled banks across the Eurozone. That's in addition to Japanese efforts to repair bank balance sheets through new and untested methods. "Whoever ends up in the White House is unlikely to find the political consensus needed to wade through a more enduring and uncomfortable structural shift in the global economy," noted Goujon.
Other key global developments highlighted in Stratfor's 2016 Fourth-Quarter Forecast include:
- Frictions between the United States and Russia will escalate as both sides reinforce their respective proxies on the crowded battlefield in Syria.
- Feuding Iraqi factions and regional stakeholders will commence the battle to retake Mosul from Islamic State, setting the stage for greater competition ahead.
- Political instability surrounding an Italian referendum will be contained and a broader banking contagion will be averted.
- North Korean security concerns will drive Japan, China and South Korea toward a tighter dialogue, even as maritime frictions ratchet up.
- The potential for additional crude supply to come online from Libya, Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan could drive Saudi Arabia to cut production to pre-summer surge levels.
The complete Fourth-Quarter Forecast -- along with Stratfor's 2016 Annual Forecast -- is now available at Stratfor.com. Past forecasts have predicted the economic transformation of China, the East-West standoff in Ukraine and the ongoing disintegration of the European Union.
As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future.
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