SOURCE: Stratfor


December 28, 2015 09:08 ET

Stratfor Foresees Unsettling Year Ahead in 2016 Annual Forecast

Leading Global Intelligence and Advisory Firm Forecasts Key Geopolitical Trends for 2016 -- a Resurgent Turkey, Cheap Commodities, Euroskepticism and the Islamic State

AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwired - December 28, 2015) - Fighting in Syria, the fragmentation of Europe and low oil prices will shape 2016, according to global intelligence and advisory firm Stratfor's Annual Forecast released today. The forecast examines how these key geopolitical trends will impact broader global developments and come to characterize an unsettling new year for much of the world.

Key elements of Stratfor's 2016 Annual Forecast include the following:

  • Turkey becomes more assertive beyond its borders to combat the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq while also confronting old rivals, Russia and Iran.
  • Russia's standoff with the U.S. persists as the Ukrainian conflict stalemates and Washington reinforces allies in the former Soviet periphery.
  • The Islamic State core suffers from an intensified military campaign, leading the group to focus more on terrorist attacks outside the Middle East.
  • Migrant issues, terrorism and economic pressures catalyze the fragmentation of Europe.
  • China's economic slowdown, an Iranian return to the oil market and a strengthening dollar compound economic pressures worldwide.

"It's important to avoid tunnel vision when evaluating major geopolitical developments in 2016," says Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla. "From Europe's fragmentation and the rise of Turkey to the fight against Islamic State and a global commodity slump, all of these trends tie into and feed off of one another. And if you think 2016 is going to be volatile, just wait for 2017. That's when we see a lot of these pressures coming to the fore."

The complete 2016 Annual Forecast is available at Past forecasts have anticipated years in advance the Turkish resurgence, the U.S. rapprochement with Iran, the Chinese economic slowdown, Russia's resurgence in the former Soviet periphery and the political fragmentation in Europe.

About Stratfor

Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, we give readers a strategic advantage as they work to anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.

Image Available:

Embedded Video Available:

Contact Information

  • For additional information, contact:
    Joshua Cook
    Stratfor Director of Public Relations