Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

January 14, 2006 05:58 ET

THE FEDERAL ELECTION AT TEN DAYS TO GO

Ad Furor Wake Does Little To Shift Overall National Vote But Atlantic Canadians Now Tilt Tory & Harper Now Ties With Martin As Choice For "Best PM" Attention: News Editor, Government/Political Affairs Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO, FEDERAL POLITICS--(CCNMatthews - Jan. 14, 2006) - After a week that witnessed a furor on the campaign trail over a slate of new Liberal ads--with particular focus on one that attacked Stephen Harper's position on having the Canadian military more prominent in some key urban centres - a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News suggests that in the controversy's wake, overall national voting intentions have not changed since the last sounding except, directionally, in Atlantic Canada.

However, it would appear that for the first time, Stephen Harper (32%, +1 point from a Nov 29, 2004 survey) is chosen by as many Canadians for "best Prime Minister" as is the incumbent Prime Minister Paul Martin (31%, -8 points).

The poll was conducted over days of intense debate about one of twelve newly released Liberal election ads.

According to the survey, among Canadians who say they are either "absolutely certain" (68%) or "very likely" (15%) to vote on Election Day, 39% support the Conservative Party (+2 points), 29% support the Liberals (+3 points), 18% support the NDP (unchanged), 9% support the Bloc Quebecois nationally (-4 points), and 5% support the Green Party (unchanged). (See Footnote in Release.)

Among all Canadians, 37% of voters would cast their ballot for the Conservative Party (+2 points), 29% for the Liberals (-2 points), 18% for the New Democratic Party (unchanged), and 5% for the Green Party (unchanged).

And, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attract 43% of federal votes (-2 points) versus 24% for the Liberals (+1 point) and 21% for the Conservatives (+2 points).

Further, it would appear that recent campaigning by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada has paid dividends in vote support, as the Conservatives (42%, +9 points) now directionally lead over the NDP (30%, +7 points) and the Liberals (26%, -16 points) in this region.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from January 10th to January 12th, 2006. For this survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data. (See table.).

Ad Furor Wake Does Little To Shift Overall National Vote But Atlantic Canadians Now Tilt Tory…

Among Those Likely To Vote, Tories (39%) Vs. Grits (29%)…

While overall decided voter intentions of the entire population represent the traditional standard in vote measurement, Ipsos Reid also reviews vote intentions among those who say they are either "absolutely certain" or "very likely" to vote in the upcoming January 23rd election (representing 83% of all Canadians). This subgroup of the population provides a more focused presentation of vote intentions among those who will actually show up at the ballot box come Election Day.

Among Canadians who say they are either "absolutely certain" or "very likely" to vote on Election Day (83% of Canadians), 39% support the Conservative Party (+2 points), 29% support the Liberals (+3 points), 18% support the NDP (unchanged), 9% support the Bloc Quebecois (-4 points), and 5% support the Green Party (unchanged).

Ten percent are undecided about which party they will vote for. (See Table.)

Among All Canadians, Tories (37%, +2 Points), Grits (29%, -2 Points), NDP (18%, Unchanged), Bloc Quebecois (43%, -2 Points In Quebec)…

If a federal election were held tomorrow, 37% of voters would cast their ballot for the Conservative Party (+2 points), 29% for the Liberals (-2 points), 18% for the New Democratic Party (unchanged), and 5% for the Green Party (unchanged).

Meanwhile, in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois attract 43% of federal votes (-2 points) versus 24% for the Liberals (+1 point) and 21% for the Conservatives (+2 points).

Thirteen percent of voters are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or don't know. (See table.)

Regional Highlights:

* In Quebec, the Liberals (24%, +1 point) are locked in a tight race with the Conservatives (21%, +2 points) for the federalist vote, while the Bloc Quebecois (43%, -2 points) continues to dominate.

* Recent campaigning by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada appears to have paid dividends in vote support, as the Conservatives (42%, +9 points) now directionally lead over the NDP (30%, +7 points) and the Liberals (26%, -16 points) in this region.

Harper (32%, +1 Point) Now Ties With Martin (31%, -8 Points) As Choice For "Best PM"…

It would appear that for the first time, Stephen Harper (32%, +1 point from a Nov 29, 2004 survey) is chosen by as many Canadians for "best Prime Minister" as is the incumbent Paul Martin (31%, -8 points). Twenty percent choose Jack Layton (-3 points). A further 17% "don't know". (See table.)

* Endorsement of Stephen Harper as the best Prime Minister is highest in Alberta (44%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (42%), and Quebec (35%).

* Paul Martin is chosen most often in Ontario and Atlantic Canada (both at 35%), and British Columbia (33%).

* Support for Jack Layton is relatively stable across all regions of the country.
Regional Vote Tables (see tables in press release):

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs

John Wright
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

Alexandra Evershed
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(613) 241-5802

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca. News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
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