Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

October 31, 2005 05:59 ET

THE FEDERAL LANDSCAPE IN LEAD UP TO GOMERY REPORT

Liberals (38%, +1 Point) Have 12 Point Lead Over Conservatives (26%, -1 Point) -- NDP (18%, +1 Point), Greens (5%, +1 Point), (In Quebec: Bloc Quebecois Has 47% vs. Liberals At 33%) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ON--(CCNMatthews - Oct. 31, 2005) - The latest CanWest News Service/Global News Ipsos Reid national survey of 2000 Canadians, pegs Paul Martin and the Federal Liberals with 38% of decided voters' support (+1 point from a September 2005 survey) and gives them a 12 point lead over Stephen Harper and the Conservatives Party (26%, -1 point). Following behind are the NDP who attract 18% of the vote (+1 point), and the Green Party which registers 5% support (+1 point).

Meanwhile, in the province of Quebec the Bloc Quebecois has 47% (-11 points) of the Federal vote, and lead the Liberals (33%, +7 points) by a 14-point margin.

When asked to think about the next Federal election, six in ten Canadians (58%) hold the opinion that "it is time for another Federal Party to given a chance to govern the country", while 34% say "the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected under the leadership of Paul Martin". These numbers are essentially unchanged from a May 2005 Ipsos Reid survey.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News and fielded from October 25th to October 27th 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The National Vote…

According to the survey, if a federal election were held tomorrow Paul Martin and the Liberals would take 38% of the decided vote (+1 point from a September 27-29th survey), the Conservatives would follow with 26% support (-1 point), while the NDP (18%, +1 point) and the Green Party (5%, +1 point) would follow further behind.

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois now attracts the support of 47% of decided federal voters (-11 points from September), and now hold a 14-point lead over the Liberals (33%, +7 points).

A relatively high percentage of Canadians (15%, unchanged) are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a federal election were held tomorrow.

Six In Ten (58%) Believe It Is Time For Another Federal Party To Be Given A Chance To Govern (Essentially Unchanged From May 2005)…

Six in ten (58%, +1 point from May 2005) believe that "it is time for another Federal Party to be given a chance to govern the country", while 34% believe the "Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected" (-3 points). The remaining 8% "don't know".

*Feelings that it is time for a change in government are strongest in Alberta (78%) and Quebec (62%).
*Residents of Ontario (39%), Saskatchewan/Manitoba and British Columbia (both at 38%) are most likely to believe the Liberal Party deserves to be re-elected.
*One in five Liberal Party supporters (18%) are of the opinion that it is time for another federal party to be given a chance.

Regional Vote Highlights…

*In Ontario, the Liberals (42%, - 4 points) continue to lead, with the Conservatives (30%, -1 point), the NDP (20%, +4 points) and the Green Party (6%, +1 point) following.
*In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (47%, -11 points) are down from the last poll in September, and have returned to levels measured in August. Meanwhile, the Liberals (33%, +7 points) have made some gains and now trail the Bloc by a margin of 14 points. The NDP (10%, +1 point), the Conservatives (7%, +1 point) and the Green Party (2%, unchanged) register low on the radar screen.
*In British Columbia, the Liberals (37%, +1 point) lead, with the Conservatives (27%, +4 points) and the NDP (26%, -8 points) being tied for second. The Green Party attracts 9% of the vote (+3 points).
*In Alberta, the Conservatives (50%, -5 points) dominate - receiving more than double the support the Liberals (25%, unchanged) do in this province. The NDP (14%, +1 point) and the Green Party (9%, +4 points) distantly trail.
*In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Liberals have 39% support (+3 points), the Conservatives 35% (+1 point), the NDP 21% (-1 point), and the Green Party 3% (+1 point).
*In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (51%, unchanged) have a strong lead over the Conservatives (31%, -1 point), with the NDP (15%, +2 points) following, and the Green Party (1%, -2 points) barely registering.

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

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