Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

June 20, 2005 06:00 ET

THE FEDERAL POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Liberals (34%) Hold 5-Point Lead Over Conservatives (29%) – NDP (16%), Green (6%); In QC, Bloc (51%) Holds 29-Point Lead Over Liberals (22%); In ON, Liberals (44%) Lead, Conservatives (31%), NDP (16%) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - June 20, 2005) - A new Ipsos-Reid survey of 1000 Canadians conducted from June 14th-16th 2005 and provided exclusively to CanWest/Global, shows that the if a Federal election were held today, Paul Martin and the Liberal Party would attract 34% of the decided votes in Canada (unchanged from May 16-18th, 2005 Ipsos-Reid survey) and would lead the Conservatives (29%, up 1 point) by a 5-point margin. The NDP at 16% support (down 1 point) trails distantly, while the Green Party (6%, unchanged) registers lowly on the national Federal political radar screen.
In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois holds 51% support (down 3 points), giving them a 29-point lead over the next closest challenger in this province, the Liberals (22%, down 2 points).

In Ontario, the Liberals (44%, down 2 points) lead, while the Conservatives (31%, unchanged) are firmly entrenched in second place and are followed distantly by the NDP (16%, down 1 point).

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and fielded from June 14th to June 16th, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1002 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

The National Vote…

According to the most recent Ipsos-Reid survey, if a Federal election were held today, 34% of decided voters would cast their ballot for the Liberals (unchanged), 29% for the Conservatives (up 1 point), 16% for the NDP (down 1 points), and 6% for the Green Party (unchanged).

In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois sits at 51% support (down 3 points) and now hold a 29-point lead over the Liberals (22%, down 2 points).

Among all Canadians, 11% are undecided, refused to say whom they would vote for, or would not vote if a Federal election were held tomorrow.

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 26-28, 2005 May 3-5, 2005 May 10-12, 2005 May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election

The Conservative Party 30% 33% 31% 31% 28% 29% +1% -1%
The Liberals 37% 30% 32% 27% 34% 34% 0% -3%
The New Democratic Party 16% 17% 16% 19% 17% 16% -1% 0%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 12% 12% 13% 14% 12% -2% 0%
The Green Party 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 0% +2%

Regional Vote Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Liberals (44%, down 2 points) lead, followed by the Conservatives (31%, unchanged), the NDP (16%, down 1 point) and the Green Party (7%, up 2 points).
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois (51%, down 3 points) hold a 29-point lead over the Liberals (22%, down 2 points), while the NDP (12%, up 3 points), the Conservatives (9%, +2 points), and the Green Party (4%, unchanged) trail distantly.
·In British Columbia, the Liberals (35%, up 5 points) lead, followed by the Conservative Party (29%, down 2 points), the NDP (23%, down 2 points), and the Green Party (11%, down 3 points).
·In Alberta, the Conservatives now hold 60% support (up 12 points), while the Liberals (19%, down 1 point), the NDP (10%, down 13 points), and the Green Party (10%, up 3 points) all trail very distantly.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Liberals (35%, up 4 points) and the Conservatives (33%, down 7 points) are knotted, and are followed closely by the NDP (27%, up 1 point). The Green Party attracts 3% support (unchanged).
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (42%, up 4 points) have a slight lead over the Conservatives (38%, down 3 points) - the NDP attracts 17% support (down 3 points).

Please Refer To The Tables Below To Review Vote Support By Region:

Parties Ontario
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 31% 31% 0
The Liberals 46% 44% -2
The NDP 17% 16% -1
The Green Party 5% 7% +2

Parties Quebec
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 7% 9% +2
The Liberals 24% 22% -2
The NDP 9% 12% +3
The Bloc Quebecois 54% 51% -3
The Green Party 4% 4% 0

Parties British Columbia
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 31% 29% -2
The Liberals 30% 35% +5
The NDP 25% 23% -2
The Green Party 14% 11% -3

Parties Alberta
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 48% 60% +12
The Liberals 20% 19% -1
The NDP 23% 10% -13
The Green Party 7% 10% +3

Parties Saskatchewan/Manitoba
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 40% 33% -7
The Liberals 31% 35% +4
The NDP 26% 27% +1
The Green Party 3% 3% 0

Parties Atlantic Canada
May 16-18, 2005 June 14-16, 2005 Change

The Conservative Party 41% 38% -3
The Liberals 38% 42% +4
The NDP 20% 17% -3
The Green Party 1% 0% -1

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
News Releases are available at: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/
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