Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

May 26, 2009 06:00 ET

Tories (35%) Take Slim Lead as Liberal (33%) Support Begins to Level

Seven-Point Grit Drop in Ontario Likely Driven by Improving Economic News, Conservative Attack Ads

Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ON--(Marketwire - May 26, 2009) - Toronto, ON - It appears that the surge in support that Michael Ignatieff and the Liberals have received over the past few months, culminating in a final lift around the time of the Liberal Convention, has finally been halted by Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. A new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television has revealed that the Tories (35%, up 2 points) have taken a slim lead over the Grits (33%, down 3 points).

With the economy showing signs of stabilizing and with Conservative attack ads against Mr. Ignatieff blanketing the nation, this poll marks the first time since early December that the Liberal Party has witnessed a decline in support.

Despite an end to the five-month rally, Michael Ignatieff's Liberals are still running significantly ahead of where the party was under his predecessor Stephane Dion, and the tightness of the race - particularly in Ontario - suggests that either party has a chance at forming the next government whenever an election is called.

If an election were held tomorrow, the NDP would receive 14% of the vote among decided voters (up 1 point), while national support for the Green Party (8%) and Bloc (9%) is holding steady. Five percent (5%) of voters remain undecided.

In Ontario the electorate is volatile, likely being influenced by recent economic developments and Conservative efforts to paint Mr. Ignatieff as being an opportunist. The Conservatives (39%, up 5 points) narrowly lead the Liberals (37%, down 7 points) in this seat-rich province, while the NDP (12%) and Green Party (10%) trail.

In Quebec, the Bloc (36%) and the Liberals (36%) are in a dead heat for first place, but the Conservatives (14%) are struggling to remain in the game, as are the NDP (7%) and the Green Party (7%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global Television from May 20 to 24, 2009. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 1,000 adult Canadians was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Canada been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & CEO
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
darrell.bricker@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

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