Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid

April 23, 2005 06:00 ET

TORIES POISED TO TAKE GOVERNMENT IF ELECTION CALLED

Conservatives Crack 40%Vote Support In Ontario For First Time Since June, 1985 (43%) Attention: News Editor TORONTO, ONTARIO--(CCNMatthews - April 23, 2005) - According to the latest Ipsos-Reid poll, provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from April 19th to 21st among 2000 Canadians nationally, Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party are poised to oust Paul Martin and the governing Liberals and take the reigns of Canada's government if an election were held today.

Nationally, the Conservatives (35%) hold a solid 5-point lead over the Liberals (30%) in decided vote support, while the NDP (18%) and the Green Party (5%) battle for positions in the lower rungs. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois garners 51% of decided votes, and now holds an astounding 31-point lead over the Liberals (20%)
In the traditionally Liberal strong-hold of Ontario, the Conservatives (40%) are riding a newly-formed wave of support and now lead the Liberals (36%) by 4-points. This represents the first time since June, 1985 when the Progressive Conservatives under former Prime Minister Bryan Mulroney were at 43% support (the Liberals were at 30%, and the NDP were at 25%) according to an Angus Reid poll. The last time the Conservatives were even close to this number was also from an Angus Reid poll conducted in 1988 when they were at 38% in the province of Ontario.

Clearly, the implications of the Conservatives being at 40% support in seat-rich Ontario, given the decimated fortunes of the Liberals in virtually every area of the country (except Atlantic Canada) suggest that the Conservatives have a significant "out of the gate" advantage should an election occur within the next period of time and portends at least a potential Conservative minority government if the numbers hold.

NOTE: As part of the survey, 377 interviews were conducted on the evening of Paul Martin's nationally televised address to the nation. Survey results from this time-frame showed a spike in support for the Conservative Party, but because of the smaller sample size these results fall within the margin of error and can only be considered in a directional nature.

These are the findings of an Ipsos-Reid poll provided exclusively to CanWest/Global and conducted from April 19th to April 21st, 2005. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 2000 adult Canadians were interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the aggregate results are considered accurate to within ± 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult Canadian population been polled. The margin of error will be larger within each sub-grouping of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to the 2001 Census data.

Conservatives (35%) Hold Strong 5-Point Lead Over Liberals (30%)…

If an election were held today, 35% of the decided vote would be allocated to the Conservative Party, 30% would go to the Liberals, 18% would go to the NDP, and 5% would go to the Green Party.

In the province of Quebec, the Bloc Quebocois attracts 51% of the decided vote and holds a 31-point lead over the Liberals (20%) and a 37-point lead over the Conservatives (14%).

Among all Canadians, 15% are undecided or refused to say whom they would vote for if an election were held today.

The National Vote…

Parties Election Results June 28, 2004 April 5-72005 April 8-10, 2005 April 12-14, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 Movement From Last Poll Since 2004 Election
The Conservative Party 30% 30% 30% 36% 35% -1% +5%
The Liberals 37% 34% 27% 27% 30% +3% -7%
The New Democratic Party 16% 15% 19% 15% 18% +3% +2%
The Bloc Quebecois 12% 10% 12% 10% 12% +2% 0%
The Green Party 4% 7% 7% 7% 5% -2% +1%

Regional Highlights…

·In Ontario, the Conservatives (40%), lead the Liberals (36%) by 4-points, while the NDP (20%) and the Green Party (4%) trails.
·In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois dominates the Federal landscape (51%) and lead the Liberals (20%) by 31-points and the Conservatives (14%) by 37-points, followed by the NDP (11%) and the Green Party (5%).
·In British Columbia the Conservatives (33%) lead, followed by the NDP (27%), the Liberals (25%), and the Green Party (13%).
·In Alberta, 57% of decided votes are in support of the Conservatives, more than double the support for the Liberals (26%) - representing a 31-point lead - while the NDP (12%), and the Green Party (5%) trail.
·In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Conservative (52%) support is twice that of Liberal (26%) support - 19% for the NDP, and 3% for the Green Party.
·In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals (44%) lead, followed by the Conservatives (36%), the NDP (18%), and the Green Party (2%).

Please Refer To The Table Below To Review Each Region:

Parties Ontario Quebec British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan/Manitoba Atlantic Canada
April 19-21, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 19-21, 2005 April 19-21, 2005

The Conservative Party 40% 14% 33% 57% 52% 36%
The Liberals 36% 20% 25% 26% 26% 44%
Bloc Quebecois 51%
The NDP 20% 11% 27% 12% 19% 18%
The Green Party 4% 5% 13% 5% 3% 2%

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For more information on this news release, please contact:

Dr. Darrell Bricker
President & COO
Ipsos-Reid Public Affairs
(416) 324-2900

For full tabular results, please visit our website at www.ipsos.ca.
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