SOURCE: Dun & Bradstreet

Dun & Bradstreet

January 07, 2015 11:53 ET

US Economy Shows Signs of Hesitant Growth in 2015

Dun & Bradstreet's U.S. Economic Health Tracker Reveals Tentative Conditions

Economy Added an Estimated 267,000 Non-Farm Payroll Jobs in December; Tepid Small Business Health Recovery Continues; Despite Improvement in Small Business and Employment, Overall Business Conditions Remain Stagnant

SHORT HILLS, NJ--(Marketwired - January 07, 2015) - Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB), the world's leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, today released its January 2015 U.S. Economic Health Tracker which provides a monthly, multi-dimensional perspective on the U.S. economy, including small business health, total job growth, and overall U.S. business health. According to Dun & Bradstreet's proprietary data, small business health continued to show small though steady gains, however, overall U.S. business health has remained stagnant in the second half of 2014.

"We see some definite bright spots in the U.S. economy, like increased viability for businesses overall and the sustained health of Main Street," said Josh Peirez, chief operating officer, Dun & Bradstreet. "But taken all together, business conditions appear to have stalled, and we estimate prolonged hesitant growth headed into the first quarter of 2015."

Dun & Bradstreet's Small Business Health Index improved 1.2 points in the latest reporting period. Although access to traditional lending remains a challenge, small businesses continue to pay their bills on time. In fact, delinquency rates for payments and credit cards both declined in December, a significant 13.9% and 3.7%, respectively. Credit card usage saw a 4.2% increase, however, likely attributable to restrictions on traditional capital access.

The economy added an estimated 267,000 new non-farm jobs to U.S. payrolls in December 2014 driven by holiday retail gains and particular strength in the business services sector. Job growth was also supported by upticks across all sectors, including manufacturing, real estate, construction and trade, transportation and utilities.

December 2014 Highlights

Small Business Health Index

D&B's Small Business Health Index improved 1.2 points in the latest reporting period. Although access to traditional lending remains a challenge, small businesses continue to pay their bills on time.

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U.S. Jobs Health

An estimated 267,000 new non-farm jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in December 2014, led by business services and holiday retail gains.

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U.S. Business Health

U.S. business health strengthened 2.4 percent in December 2014 compared to the same time period in the previous year. However, levels have remained stagnant in the second half of 2014.

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Media Resources

  • Watch Bodhi Ganguli, Dun & Bradstreet senior economist, share his perspective on the state of the U.S. economy in a short video.
  • To download the January U.S. Economic Health Tracker Infographic, visit www.dnb.com/tracker.
  • Access the 2015 planned publishing schedule, FAQs, and archived reports at www.dnb.com/tracker.
  • Follow D&B Economic Insight daily on Twitter at @DnBEconomy.

Methodology

The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year weighted average of D&B's Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of December 31, 2014.

About D&B's U.S. Economic Health Tracker

This forward-looking perspective on the U.S. economy offers insights and monthly data using three macro indicators: (i) the D&B Small Business Health Index, (ii) the D&B U.S. Jobs Health Indicator; and (iii) the D&B U.S. Business Health Index. The index also leverages three D&B advanced analytic products (D&B's Viability Score™, D&B Delinquency Predictor™, and D&B Total Loss Predictor™).

About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)

The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation is the world's leading source of commercial data, analytics and insight on businesses. Our global commercial database contains more than 240 million business records. We transform commercial data into valuable insight which is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions.

Dun & Bradstreet provides solution sets that meet a diverse set of customer needs globally. Customers use D&B Risk Management Solutions™ to mitigate credit and supplier risk, increase cash flow and drive increased profitability, and D&B Sales & Marketing Solutions™ to provide data management capabilities that provide effective and cost efficient marketing solutions to increase revenue from new and existing customers.

For more information, please visit www.dnb.com or follow @DnBUS.

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