Central 1 Credit Union

Central 1 Credit Union

August 08, 2012 09:00 ET

Vancouver House Prices to Slip, but Not Plummet, Central 1 Credit Union Says

Fears of a Bubble Are Overblown, Price Decline Likely to Be Modest and Temporary

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwire - Aug. 8, 2012) - Fears that Vancouver house prices are set to drop dramatically are overstated, says a new forecast by Central 1 Credit Union.

Central 1, the financial facility and trade association for BC credit unions, expects provincial house sales to slow and prices to stabilize, declining this year before rising slightly in 2013 and 2014.

"Unless there is another recession with large scale job losses in the province, which we do not expect, house prices will temporarily decline by about 5 per cent," says Bryan Yu, economist with Central 1.

A tumble in Metro Vancouver sales this year will offset gains in other parts of the province, particularly in northern markets, pushing provincial resale transactions down to the lowest level since 2001.

Central 1 released two reports today, one focused on the Vancouver area and a broader look at the housing market across the province for 2012-14.

Highlights:

  • The weak state of demand in Metro Vancouver makes short-term price drops a near-certainty, but the declines will be both modest and temporary.

  • Prospective sellers are likely to respond to the weaker market by delaying listing, which will balance the supply of houses for sale.

  • Vancouver has become a buyers market with the number of active listings the highest in two years.

  • New mortgage rules will keep some buyers out of the market, dampening sales of entry-level homes.

  • The rental market will remain tight with few vacancies.

  • Province-wide new home starts are forecast to hold steady at 26,700 this year, but edge lower by 1% in 2013 to 26,500 units. Total starts will rebound to 30,000 in 2014.

The full report B.C. Housing Forecast 2012-14 is available here: http://www.central1.com/publications/economics/pdf/ea/ea%202012_02.pdf.

The full report Metro Vancouver Housing Forecast 2012-2014 is available here: http://www.central1.com/publications/economics/pdf/ea/ea%202012_03.pdf.

Central 1

Central 1 is the central financial facility and trade association for the B.C. and Ontario credit union systems. Central 1 represents a consumer-oriented, full-service retail financial system that serves 2.9 million members and holds $82 billion in assets and is owned primarily by its member credit unions, 45 in B.C. and 106 in Ontario.

With offices in Vancouver, Mississauga, and Toronto, Central 1 provides a wide range of services such as liquidity management, direct banking, and payment service solutions.

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