The Weather Network

The Weather Network

August 27, 2009 08:00 ET

The Weather Network's Fall Outlook: Following an Unusual Summer for Weather in Many Regions Across the Country, What's in Store for Canadians This Fall?

OAKVILLE, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - Aug. 27, 2009) - In many regions across the country, Canadians faced rather unusual conditions for the long-awaited months of summer, from cooler temperatures in Central Canada to warm, dry conditions in the West. Central Canadians experienced a storm track that brought in below average temperatures and more rainfall than usual. The see-saw effect of the jet stream also brought warm and dry conditions to Western Canada where forest fires continue to be battled due to the conditions.

Moving into the transitional fall months of September, October and November, Canadians can expect the developing El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean to have an impact on the North American weather patterns for the next six to twelve months. The jet stream is forecast to take on more of a zonal west to east pattern this fall, meaning a more rapid flow of systems across the country. Overall, the jet stream will trend further north for the beginning of the season, however as the season progresses, expect it to move south as fall comes to a close. Overall, Canadians can anticipate temperatures from British Columbia to Ontario to be above normal. Near normal precipitation is expected for most of the country with a few pockets of above normal precipitation. Normal temperatures or precipitation are an average based on 30 years of data.

"The jet stream pattern we saw throughout the summer months is gradually transitioning, and our seasonal forecast team is predicting above average temperatures this fall for nearly all of Western Canada," said Chris Scott, Forecast Operations Manager with The Weather Network. "Many Canadians in Eastern Canada have been hoping the cooler than normal summer temperatures means that summer has been delayed into the fall months - while temperatures are forecast to be close to normal, there is an opportunity for some stretches of warm weather in the first half of the season."

Regional Breakdown

British Columbia: Coastal areas of British Columbia can expect near normal temperatures for the next few months. Interior and eastern portions of the province will see above normal temperatures for the season. Pacific storms moving from the coast through the central Interior will bring above normal precipitation.

Prairie Provinces: Temperatures for a significant portion of the 3 provinces will average above normal. The far north of Saskatchewan and Manitoba will see temperatures closer to normal. Most of the region will see normal precipitation values leading into winter.

Ontario and Quebec: Most of Northern Ontario will see above normal temperatures, while Southern regions of the province can expect near normal temperatures. The majority of Quebec will experience temperatures near normal. Storms from Western Canada and the US Central high plains will tend to bring more frequent precipitation to Northwestern Ontario. Near normal precipitation is expected for the rest of Ontario into Quebec.

Atlantic Canada: Temperatures in Atlantic Canada are forecast to be near normal for the fall months. While the Maritimes can expect near normal precipitation, the position of the jet stream coupled with moisture from tropical systems may result in above average precipitation for Newfoundland.

Hurricane Season

With El Nino conditions present in the Pacific Ocean, fewer tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean. However, residents of Eastern Canada should be prepared for the remnants of tropical systems throughout the fall months. "El Nino tends to reduce the number of Atlantic hurricanes, but past seasons have shown that destructive storms can still form during El Nino years," said Chris Scott.

El Nino & La Nina

El Nino and La Nina are phases of the climate cycle called the El Nino/Southern Oscillation which describes the ocean and atmospheric patterns occurring in and over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is characterized by warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures west of South America that endure for several seasons, where as La Nina represents the opposite cooler phase. Changes in water temperature across vast stretches of the Pacific Ocean cause disruptions in the trade winds and weather conditions. Both phenomena have a large impact on the jet stream and weather patterns around the world that can result in floods or droughts.



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Region Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
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British Columbia Near normal for coastal Above normal for the
BC. Above normal elsewhere. central coast and central
Interior BC. Near normal
across the southern and
northern regions.
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Alberta Above normal. Near normal for most of the
province. Above normal for
west-central Alberta.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saskatchewan Above normal, except in Near normal.
the far northeast where
near normal temperatures
are expected.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Manitoba Above normal, except in Near normal; perhaps
the north where near slightly above in the
normal temperatures are extreme southeast.
anticipated.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ontario Near normal in the far Above normal across much of
north and across the Northwestern Ontario. Near
south. Above normal normal elsewhere.
temperatures for the
rest of the province.
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Quebec Near normal for most areas. Near normal.
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The Maritimes and Near normal. Near normal for most of
Newfoundland & Atlantic Canada, though
Labrador much of Newfoundland has a
chance for above normal
precipitation.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Yukon, Northwest Above normal for Southern Near normal across much of
Territories, Yukon and Southwestern the region with a chance of
Nunavut N.W.T. Below normal across above normal precipitation
much of the Arctic for the northeast arctic.
Archipelago. Near normal
elsewhere.
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Watch The Weather Network on satellite or cable or visit theweathernetwork.com for complete details on the fall outlook and national weather maps. Throughout the season, national weather forecasts can be checked on-the-go through the mobile application WeatherEye, or on the mobile site mobile.theweathernetwork.com. The Weather Network provides local and convenient weather access for over 10,000 cities worldwide and Canadian and U.S. weather warnings, traffic reports and many seasonal reports.

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