Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

October 30, 2014 08:15 ET

Winnipeg Housing Starts to Moderate yet Remain Elevated Through 2016

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA--(Marketwired - Oct. 30, 2014) - According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Fall 2014 Winnipeg Housing Market Outlook released today, total housing starts in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are projected to reach 4,525 units by the end of the year, 3.8 per cent less than the 4,705 started in 2013. Looking forward, a number of demand and supply factors will result in a continued moderation in total housing starts with 4,500 in 2015 and 4,425 in 2016.

"New housing demand will be impacted by slower employment growth and lower levels of migration over the forecast period," noted Dianne Himbeault, CMHC's Senior Market Analyst for Winnipeg. "The moderation will be concentrated in the multi-family sector as inventories of complete and unabsorbed units are expected to rise, compelling builders to scale back production moving forward," she added.

Single detached starts are projected to number 1,975 units in 2014, 11 per cent fewer than the 2,218 started in 2013. This will help to reduce inventories, while population and employment growth over the forecast period will support a small turnaround in production. On balance, single-detached starts will expand by 1.3 per cent in 2015 to 2,000 units, with another 2,025 units expected in 2016.

Multi-family construction, which consists of semi-detached units, rows, and apartments, will outperform the single-detached sector in the Winnipeg CMA for the second year in a row. Multi-family starts are on pace to advance 2.5 per cent in 2014 to 2,550 units. Rising inventories will dampen the initiation of some new projects moving forward. However, multi-family construction will remain elevated as demand continues to shift to higher density options. Overall, 2,500 starts are expected in 2015, representing a decline of two per cent. A further four per cent decline to 2,400 units is expected in 2016.

Sales of existing homes in the Winnipeg CMA will remain stable over the forecast period, posting growth of less than one per cent in each of 2014, 2015, and 2016 when sales will reach 12,400 units. Demand for resale homes will be underpinned by continued positive net migration, though increases in sales will be limited by modest employment growth.

While sales will remain stable, more existing homeowners are choosing to list their homes resulting in higher listings relative to sales. Under these conditions, price increases will moderate moving forward. The average MLS® price is expected to increase 2.8 per cent to $276,000 in 2014, and rise a further 2.5 per cent in each of the next two years, reaching $290,000 in 2016.

As Canada's national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642. CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

Additional data is available upon request

(Ce document existe également en français)

Contact Information

  • Market Analysis Contact:
    Dianne Himbeault, Senior Market Analyst
    (204) 318-1754
    dhimbeau@cmhc.ca

    Media Contact:
    Charles Daniel Mainville
    Senior Communications Consultant
    (403) 515-2915
    cdmainvi@cmhc.ca