Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

October 26, 2015 08:15 ET

Winnipeg Housing Starts to Move Lower in 2016 and 2017

WINNIPEG, MANITOBA--(Marketwired - Oct. 26, 2015) - According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) Fall 2015 Winnipeg Housing Market Outlook released today, total housing starts in the Winnipeg Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) are projected to decline to 3,925 units in 2015, 3,800 in 2016 and 3,750 in 2017.

"Total starts will continue to come down from the 2013 peak over the forecast period," said Lai Sing Louie, CMHC's Regional Economist for the Prairie region. "Rising inventories in the multi-family sector will prompt builders to reduce production in 2016 and 2017, offsetting slight increases in single-detached construction," added Louie.

Single-detached housing starts are forecast to decline to 1,575 units in 2015 as a result of rising inventory and more competition from the resale market. In 2016, single-detached starts will rise to 1,600 units. "Lower production in 2014 and 2015 will draw down the inventory of complete and unabsorbed units prompting builders to increase production slightly in 2016," said Louie. "Moving forward continued employment growth and elevated migration will support slightly higher production in 2017 to 1,650 units," added Louie.

Multi-family housing starts, including semi-detached units, rows, and apartments, are on pace to post a second consecutive year of moderation after peaking in 2013. Completions continue to outpace absorptions resulting in record high inventories which will prompt builders to lower production over the forecast period. Overall, starts in this sector will moderate to 2,350 units in 2015, to 2,200 units in 2016 and 2,100 units in 2017.

MLS® sales are forecast to rise to 12,300 sales in 2015, 12,400 in 2016 and 12,500 in 2017. Resale activity will continue to keep pace with population and employment growth over the forecast period and result in growth of near one per cent in both 2016 and 2017. Elevated levels of net migration will continue to have a positive impact on housing demand as new immigrants make their way into homeownership.

Balanced market conditions in the Winnipeg CMA will prevail over the forecast period and result in smaller increases in the average MLS® price. The average resale price is expected to reach $278,000 in 2015, an increase of 1.7 per cent over 2014. Further modest increases of 1.4 per cent are expected in both 2016 and 2017 leading to an average price of $282,000 in 2016 and $286,000 in 2017.

As Canada's authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, visit www.cmhc.ca or call 1-800-668-2642. CMHC Market Analysis standard reports are also available free for download at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

Follow CMHC on Twitter @CMHC_ca

Additional data is available upon request

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