SOURCE: WSI Corporation

Professional Division of The Weather Company

September 22, 2014 11:31 ET

WSI: Cool Fall Temperatures to Continue Across Central US, With Above-Normal Temps on Both Coasts

Early Winter Forecast Calls for Warm North/West, Cold South/East

ANDOVER, MA--(Marketwired - September 22, 2014) - WSI (Weather Services International) has issued their latest forecast for the October-December period. The forecast indicates below-normal temperatures will be prevalent in the central US, with above-normal temperatures expected in the western and eastern thirds of the country. The most significant positive temperature anomalies will be again found in the Pacific Northwest. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal (1981-2010). 

According to WSI Chief Meteorologist Dr. Todd Crawford: "The relatively cool pattern that has been commonplace over the last year in the US has continued into September, with unusually cool temperatures observed across much of the northern US. Looking forward, the central US appears to have the greatest risk of below-normal temperatures as we head into the fall season, with above-normal temperatures more likely on the coasts, especially the Pacific Coast. As we head into winter, the changes in the Pacific associated with the El Nino event should alter the pattern a bit, with the area of below-normal temperatures moving to the southern/eastern US. While it is still early, it currently appears that the greatest risk for cold weather will occur during the back half of the winter in the eastern US."

In October, WSI sees the monthly breakdown as:
Northeast* - Warmer than normal
Southeast* - Warmer than normal
North Central * - Cooler than normal
South Central* - Cooler than normal
Northwest* - Warmer than normal
Southwest* - Cooler than normal AZ/NM, warm CA/NV

According to Chris Kostas, Senior Power and Gas Analyst at ESAI Power LLC: "With no significant seasonal temperature anomalies expected in October, weather-related energy demand should be soft to finish the gas-injection season. The weather impact on electrical demand and power prices should be overshadowed by generator maintenance schedules, with implied market heat-rates and power prices being supported by coal and nuclear maintenance schedules. With low seasonal and weather-related demand expected, natural-gas prices in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region will remain very soft and continue to trade at a sizable discount to Henry Hub. Seasonally-soft demand from the power sector, negligible demand from the heating sector, and continued natural-gas production growth (particularly from the Marcellus region) should allow for further gains against the year-over-year storage deficit, and will leave natural gas inventories in healthy shape heading into the winter."

In November, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Warmer than normal
Southeast - Warmer than normal
North Central - Colder than normal
South Central - Colder than normal
Northwest - Warmer than normal
Southwest - Cooler than normal AZ/NM, warm CA/NV

Kostas added: "In November, warmer-than-normal temperatures and soft weather-related demand in the Northeast, Southeast, and West Coast should more than offset the colder-than-normal temperatures and increased weather-related demand expected in Texas and the Northern Plains. Below-normal aggregate weather-related demand should keep natural gas and power prices stable in November. We believe warmer-than-normal November temperatures along the population-heavy coastal regions of the East and West should also help to reduce the natural-gas inventory gap relative to last year and keep energy prices relatively stable heading into the winter."

In December, WSI forecasts:
Northeast - Warmer than normal
Southeast - Colder than normal
North Central - Warmer than normal
South Central - Colder than normal
Northwest - Warmer than normal
Southwest - Warmer than normal

Kostas noted: "Aggregate weather-related demand is expected to remain soft in December considering the forecast for warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country. The West Coast, Rockies, Central Plains, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions all expect to see warmer-than-normal temperatures and soft weather-related demand in December. Reduced weather-related demand from these regions should more than offset the above-normal weather-related demand expected along the Gulf Coast and should keep natural-gas prices soft through December. New England will be the exception and is widely expected to see higher delivered natural-gas prices and increased power prices associated with pipeline constraints (and the growing dependency on natural gas to power the electrical grid)."

WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next seasonal outlook on October 17. 

*To view the map defining WSI's US regions, click here.

About WSI Corporation
WSI (Weather Services International) and Weather Central are the world's leading providers of weather-driven business solutions for professionals in the energy, aviation, insurance and media markets, as well as multiple federal and state government agencies. Together they comprise the professional division of The Weather Company and are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms, The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.

About ESAI
Since its inception in 1984, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) has been dedicated to monitoring, analyzing and synthesizing information about world-wide energy markets. Tapping the talents of its senior-level staff, ESAI provides clients with unparalleled insight into where the markets have been and where they are headed. ESAI provides ongoing systematic analysis of energy prices in the oil, natural gas and energy markets. For more information on ESAI services, see www.esai.com.

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